* Flash flood watch through late tonight *
Update, 12:30 p.m.: The area of rain coming up from the south weakened some and shrunk a bit. It looks to exit rather quickly in the next hour, which should allow for some dry intervals this afternoon. More scattered showers and storms will likely develop but should be hit or miss.
Update, 9:30 a.m.: Some adjustments to thoughts on rain timing and coverage (the most challenging part of this forecast)… Early morning showers were more isolated than widespread. But showers are now increasing to the south and moving into the region, so we should expect on and off showery conditions through midday. By this afternoon, a larger area of heavy rain now approaching Richmond (especially its west wide), should make a run at the region and that is when we expect more concentrated rain (especially just west of I-95) and the possibility of localized flooding.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
If you’re tired of the relentless humidity and daily opportunities for downpours, join the club. Some good news is that the week does trend somewhat drier as it progresses. But, at least through midweek, occasional showers and storms – some heavy – are Washington, D.C. weather staples.
Today (Monday): Areas of rain – some heavy with embedded thunder – are likely in the morning (70 percent chance). So allow some extra time for the morning commute. We may catch a short break between mid-morning and mid-afternoon with brief partly sunny intervals. Then more showers and storms likely develop (60 percent chance) although they may be a bit more hit or miss in nature. Highs reach the low-mid 80s. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Showers and storms – some heavy – are likely (60 percent chance), although the timing and hardest hit areas are tough to pin down. It’s muggy with lows generally 70-74 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium
For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…
Tomorrow (Tuesday): More ribbons of rain stream up from the south, with locally heavy rain again possible. Some rain-free breaks are a good bet between the various waves and not everyone gets doused. It’s very humid, with highs mostly in the low 80s. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Shower and storms opportunities continue (50 percent chance), with muggy lows in the low 70s. Confidence: Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Wednesday brings no relief from the humidity, and showers and thunderstorms chances persist though they’re slightly less than Monday and Tuesday, at just under 50 percent. Intervals of sunshine are a bit more likely, with highs in the mid-80s. Wednesday evening sees a slightly reduced chance of showers and storms (30-40 percent chance, with best odds in the evening), with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium
Independence Day (Thursday) is a pretty characteristic one for the region weatherwise for the season. While we have a 30 percent chance or so late afternoon or evening storms, that chance is lower than a previous two days – so most fireworks ceremonies have a decent chance to go forward. Afternoon highs reach the upper 80s under partly sunny skies. Lows Thursday night are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium
By Friday and into the weekend, the super wet pattern will have departed, and we’ll be back to just the usual early July D.C. weather: hot (highs around 90), somewhat humid, and with a slight (20-30) chance of late day storms. Nights are muggy with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.