D.C. area forecast: Humid and showery into Tuesday, some late week drying possible

12:55 p.m. update: My initial 70 percent chance of showers and storms today seems too high (I’d say 40 percent at this point), as most activity has remained well west of the District. We may see a few showers and storms develop later this afternoon, but many of us may stay dry until evening, when rain chances increase to around 60 percent.

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the days weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

4
This sorry summer, it’s always humid and if it’s not hot, it’s rainy. Today’s the latter.

Express Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy, showers and storms likely. Highs 85-89.

Tonight: Evening showers and storms possible. Lows 70-75.

Tomorrow: Variably cloudy, showers and storms likely. Highs 86-91.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Last week, all seven days reached 90 or higher.  What if I told you we might not hit 90 at all this week? It’s possible (though Tuesday might play spoiler and maybe Saturday), but instead of heat, we have considerable clouds and rain chances, especially early this week.  Mid-to-late week, we *may* catch a rare break from both rain and hot weather if we can get a fickle front out of the way.

Today (Monday): Showers and thunderstorms are likely today (70 percent chance) but we’re not talking about all-day rain.  There are likely some dry stretches and the sun may come out in intervals. Still, showers and storms, a few which could produce heavy rain, are a possibility throughout the day. Rainfall amounts are highly variable, with the average around 0.25-0.5 inch, but isolated much higher totals possible. Highs range from the mid-80s to near 90, with high humidity levels.  Winds are light. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Showers and storms are likely around in the evening (60 percent chance), then skies are mostly cloudy.  Overnight lows range from 70-75 (suburbs-city). Winds are light Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Skies are variably cloudy with roughly even chances of showers and storms. I’m inclined to think rain is a little more scattered than Monday, but it depends on the exact position of a stalled out front, which is difficult to pin down.  We should have enough sun at times to push highs into the upper 80s or even to around 90.  Winds are light. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: A decent chance of showers and storms lingers into the evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies thereafter.  Lows range from 70-75 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

The stalled front is still hanging around Wednesday, keeping a 40 percent chance of mostly afternoon and evening storms in the picture.  Highs should be in the mid-to-upper 80s.  After any evening storms, partly cloudy Wednesday night, with lows in the mid-to-upper 60s in the cooler suburbs to low 70s downtown. Confidence: Medium

Thursday through Saturday may just turn into a fairly decent summer stretch.  The stalled front is likely to have dissipated and/or pushed far enough away to allow for some modestly less humid conditions and reduced rain chances.  Highs during the stretch should be mostly in the mid-to-upper 80s to perhaps near 90 Saturday.  Overnight lows are likely to be in the mid-to-upper 60s in the cooler suburbs to low 70s downtown.  Humidity levels may drop back into the moderate range. Confidence: Medium

Saturday night and Sunday another cold front pushes through the region, bringing back the chance (30 percent) of some scattered showers and storms.  Lows Saturday night range from 70-75, with highs Sunday in the mid-to-upper 80s. Confidence: Low-Medium

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