D.C. area forecast: Retreating refreshment relinquishes to rain by Sunday?

August 16, 2013

9:50 a.m. update: The latest model runs paint a drier picture for Saturday…the chance of showers may be 20 percent or less.

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the days weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

9
Even if we see increasing clouds, I love this air mass. SO REFRESHING! Long lunch on a patio, anyone?

Express Forecast

Today: Partly sunny, clouds increase late. Highs: Upper 70s to low 80s.

Tonight: Increasing cloud cover with late showers? Lows: Upper 50s to mid-60s.

Tomorrow: Shower chances. Highs: 70s to around 80.

Sunday: Cloudy, intermittent showers. Highs: Mid-70s to near 80.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

I am somewhat bullish on sunshine today, and hopeful that we delay what could be a serious cloud threat for the remainder of the weekend! Shower chances start in tonight as well. I just don’t see us kicking out the clouds until Tuesday. By that point, the heat is back and so is the humidity. Full force. Still summer…


Clouds: Latest mid-Atlantic infrared satellite shows movement of clouds over past two hours. Refresh page to update. See more maps on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): High temperatures in the mid-70s to low 80s should feel comfortable but will vary based on the amount of afternoon cloud cover. Northern suburbs may actually see more sun than D.C.! We might verify Nice Day criteria, but I’m not sure enough to put the stamp up. Still, try to get outside for a long lunch break, if you can’t cut out of work early. A light east-northeast breeze (5-10 mph) may encourage cloud formation. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Hopefully some breaks in the clouds keep our evening from being too gray. But there is an increasing chance of showers overnight, around 15%  odds you get wet by around midnight, to 30% for patchy light rain by sunrise. A few cool spots outside the Beltway may see upper 50s by just before sunrise, but mid-60s more likely downtown. Light east breezes around 5 mph continue. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Saturday): It may be a bit damp (40% chance) in addition to very substantial cloud cover. If you are risk tolerant, still try for outdoor plans. It is doable to dodge a moderately heavy shower or two! Right? High temperatures may be bit muted, depending on how cloudy we stay, in the 70s should it be fully cloudy and damp, to near 80 with any sun. Still pleasant in my book, even with the slightest tinge of mugginess possible. Breezes from the northeast around 5-10 mph remain refreshing. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Continued clouds and shower threats (40-50% chance) should persist, perhaps tapering late. A light breeze from the east and northeast may help draw in “cool muggy” air off of the bay and Atlantic as well. Low temperatures overnight hover in the 60s everywhere. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: Clouds hang tough and showers threaten again, on the order of around a 50% chance. I am eyeing some of this potential moisture and wonder if we see a heavier shower or two? High temperatures may struggle to near the 80 degree mark in some spots, but I think mid-70s are much more likely given the clouds and rain around. We’ll have to keep an eye on just how cloudy and rainy it ends up being, and adjust temperatures downward if it turns wetter than currently expected. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night: Clouds and showers may persist, with a 30% chance of rain. Low temperatures really try to dip, but have a hard time going below the mid-60s outside the Beltway to near 70 downtown. Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday mugginess – has a certain ring to it. Summer’s “feel” returns to the air and temperatures make a rebound into the low-to-mid 80s. Clouds and showers (20-30% chance) still threaten, though. Those peeks of sun are toasty. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tuesday may show us several more glimmers of sunshine—I hope? Heat may be back on though as well, with mid-80s to around 90 possible for high temperatures. Shower chances may be lower (around 10%), so we really may kick this early onset Seasonal Affective Disorder. Kidding! Mostly. Confidence: Low

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Jason Samenow · August 15, 2013