D.C. area forecast: Perfectly pleasant day on tap, showers threaten to mar weekend

September 19, 2013

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the days weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

10
If there is anything wrong with today, it is that it is just too darn nice. Sunshine quickly warms the temps and the soul with the lightest of breeze.

Express Forecast

Today: Sunny and dry. Highs: 75-79.

Tonight: Clear and calm. Lows: 54-61.

Tomorrow: Mainly sunny, still dry. Highs: 79-83.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The next two days are a delight. After that,  we may have to build the Great Wall of Shenandoah to keep the showery hordes from invading from the west and spoiling the weekend.

I know we need the rain but let’s hope it all comes on Saturday night and then gets the heck out of here. Yeah right. More likely showers pick up by midday Saturday and linger through midday Sunday. There are a few models that hold rains over us well into next week but that requires the cooperation of a tropical influx which is still not looking that likely.

nice day
Today (Thursday): Early risers look to the west as the Harvest Moon sets in all her glory. The sun rises quickly to the east on her heels and the chill will disappear a lot faster than previous days with 60s quickly dominating and mid-to-upper 70s for highs. Clouds should be a novelty today as dry air rules with barely a breeze. Confidence: High

Tonight: The sun set is now nearly at 7 p.m. and that allows readings to slip back quickly to upper 60s to lower 70s for the evening crowd. The moon will be in full splendor once again. Overnight lows hold up a little better with mid-50s burbs to lower 60s downtown. Confidence: High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Friday): Clouds remain in short supply. The sun is a bit more potent and highs make a brief return to lower 80s in most spots. With little humidity those temps are no problem and a light wind from the south helps us keep our cool. Confidence: High

Tomorrow night: The cold front out in the Midwest should begin to scuttle a few clouds into the late night sky but stars should still be in sight. Lows fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

Clouds increase Saturday morning. Highs are held back a bit but still make the upper 70s in most areas. With some luck, showers may hold off until late afternoon but there is a 30% chance of getting damp during the day. That increases to 60% by evening. While rain amounts with this system still look limited, at least a half inch is very possible. Lows are mainly in the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium

Sunday marks the first day of astronomical fall as the direct rays of the sun slip south of the equator at about 4:45 p.m. ET. Unfortunately clouds are likely to be thick much of the day and a 40% rain chance is in place. Highs work hard to make the mid-to-upper 70s. While some models want to keep showers going through the night, the chances slip to 20% by my reckoning. Lows fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s  Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday is a tough call as some models kick the clouds out and contain the tropical moisture to the south and east(my vote), but others are still inclined to stall the front and pull up the moisture from the south leading to another day of showers. I give it only a 20% chance but if I am wrong at least the gardens will be happy. Highs are likely to be in the mid-70s but could be slightly warmer if it clears out. Confidence: Low-Medium

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David Streit · September 19, 2013