FORECAST IN DETAIL
The first six days of October better resembled the first six days of July, with an average high of 88. That all changes today as a strong cold front slices through the region, with showers and perhaps a gusty thunderstorms or two. Picture perfect weather marks our midweek, but it’s considerably cooler. Late in the work week, it might turn cloudy and a little damp, or it might not.
Today (Monday): Showers are possible at any time, beginning with the morning commute. The best chance of rain, however, is late morning through late afternoon when a few thunderstorms and/or heavy downpours are possible. It’s muggy and warm for one more day, with highs in the mid-70s to near 80. Winds are from the south at 10-15 mph.
Severe storm threat? There’s an outside chance of a severe thunderstorm (mainly well east and northeast of the District), but pervasive cloud cover probably squashes the necessary instability. The main threat with any severe storm would be isolated damaging winds or a weak tornado.
Rainfall totals? A general 0.5-1″ seems likely, but locally lower or higher amounts are possible.
Today’s forecast confidence: Medium
Tonight: A few evening showers are possible (mainly before 7 p.m.), then we gradually clear out and cooler air filters in. Lows range from near 50 in the cooler suburbs to the mid-50s downtown. Yes- you can turn the air-conditioning off…perhaps for the final time in 2013! Winds are from west and northwest around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High
For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…
Tomorrow (Tuesday): Fall is back. The air is much drier and much cooler, but not quite cool. For many, it’s just right. Highs reach upper 60s to low 70s under mostly sunny skies. We’ll have a light breeze from the northwest at around 10-15 mph at times. Confidence: High
Tomorrow night: Clear and crisp. Lows range from the low 40s in the coolest suburbs west and northwest, to the low 50s downtown. Calm winds. Confidence: High
A LOOK AHEAD
Wednesday’s weather is a winner, with mostly sunny skies (perhaps some increasing high clouds in the afternoon) and enjoyable temperatures. Highs range from 65-70. Increasing clouds are possible Wednesday night, with lows 45-53 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High
An area of low pressure may form and meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday, throwing back some clouds and even some periods of light rain or drizzle (especially east of I-95). On the other hand, it’s possible the low stays far enough away that our skies remain at least partly sunny. Highs should be seasonable…close to 70, but might get held back in the 60s if the clouds win out. Overnight temperatures should be mostly in the 50s. Confidence: Low
I’m thinking any offshore low pressure system moves away for the weekend but it’s not a sure thing. At the moment, I favor a good deal of sunshine and comfortable fall afternoon temps in the low 70s (lows in the 40s to low 50s), but this is a forecast that will require fine tuning. Confidence: Low-Medium