PM Update: Stalled storm keeps the rain coming


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

One to two inches of rain has fallen from the current coastal storm, and it’s not over, by a long shot.  While the heaviest and steadiest rain has come and gone, cool, showery weather continues through Friday as this “Ghost of Karen” sits and spins off the coast.

Through Tonight: On and off showers, with drizzle and fog in between.  Overnight rainfall totals are probably around 0.25″ – plus or minus a tenth or two.  Temps only fall a handful of degrees, with lows 50-55 (suburbs-city).  Winds from the north around 10mph.

Tomorrow (Friday): We see continued intermittent showers with drizzle during breaks in the action.  We should pick up another 0.25″ or so of rain.  Highs range from the upper 50s to low 60s with winds from the north at 10 mph.

See David Streit’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter . For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Rainfall so far: Through 4 p.m., 1.65 inches of rain had fallen at Reagan National Airport, 1.75″ at Dulles, and 1.99″ at BWI.  The map of doppler estimated rainfall in the region (below) generally shows 1-2 inches.


Doppler estimated rainfall through 4 p.m. over the last 48 hours (National Weather Service)

How much more?: The coverage and intensity has waned some and we’re seeing more showery weather rather than persistent rains.  But, still, as the storm spins offshore, showers cycling inland will produce measurable rain.  Models generally indicate that through Friday evening another 0.5″ of rain is possible, plus or minus 0.25″.  And we can’t rule out a bit more Friday night.  I don’t expect much additional rain Saturday.

Here’s a NAM model simulation showing rainfall totals every 3 hours through Saturday night as well as surface pressure.  Gray shades represent 0.01-0.1″ of rain.  Greens are 0.1-0.4″ and blues are 0.4-0.9″.  Notice how the area of low pressure off the coast just meanders, moving little.


NAM model simulation of surface pressure and rainfall accumulation every 3 hours (WeatherBell.com)
Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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Jason Samenow · October 10, 2013