D.C. area forecast: Warmer today despite clouds; strong wind gusts possible tonight

November 17, 2013

11:45 p.m. Update: A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the western sections of our area through 4 a.m. This includes Fauquier, Loudoun, and Frederick counties.  As a very narrow, but potentially intense line of storms races through the region – mainly between 1 and 3 a.m. – some strong – perhaps damaging – wind gusts are possible.

10:50 a.m. Update: The cold front that has triggered a Particularly Dangerous Situation in the Midwest, with a large area including Chicago, St. Louis and Milwaukee at a significant risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, could bring some gusty winds and a bit of thunder to the D.C. area along with possible showers late tonight. The National Weather Service says there’s a 15% chance of damaging wind gusts (58 mph or greater) mainly between midnight and 7 a.m.

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

6
A surge of afternoon warmth tries to make up for stubborn clouds and morning fog/mist.

Express Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy with a.m. fog/mist likely. A few p.m. showers? Highs: 60s.

Tonight: Fog/mist likely. 50% chance of showers. Lows: Mid-50s to near 60.

Tomorrow: Early shower? Clearing skies, a bit breezy. Highs: Mid-60s to near 70.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Some improvement for your Sunday, with a decently mild afternoon, despite possibly book-ending the day with dampness. Clouds hang around today but the best chance for actual showers (rather than mist or drizzle) waits until tonight with a cold front.  We should sneak in a bonus nice day behind this front tomorrow, before the cold air surge arrives toward midweek, bringing plenty of sun but a noticeable chill.


Clouds: Latest mid-Atlantic infrared satellite shows movement of clouds over past two hours. Refresh page to update. See more maps on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Continued cloudiness is with us today, though skies may eventually brighten some. Lingering fog/mist is likely during the morning with temperatures probably stuck in the 50s. But that should clear by late morning to around noon as winds turn more from the south, helping highs surge into the 60s despite mostly cloudy skies. There’s a 30% chance of a few light showers during the late afternoon as our next system approaches. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: The fog/mist combo may return during the overnight, perhaps mixed with a few more honest to goodness rain showers (50% chance) before the front passes through a bit after sun up.  Thanks to the moisture and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures stay relatively mild with overnight lows in the mid-50s to near 60.  Winds from the southwest get a bit breezy as well, increasing to 10-20 mph. Confidence: Medium

Hoping the warmth sticks around a bit longer? Keep reading for the forecast through the midweek…

Tomorrow (Monday): Any lingering showers should be exiting the area by mid-morning, with partly to mostly sunny skies arriving by late morning or early afternoon. Cold air really lags behind this front, so with a warming wind from the west at 10-20 mph we’ll see mild highs in the mid-to-upper 60s for most, possibly closing in on 70 in spots. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: We really clear out and start to feel like fall again by tomorrow night.  High pressure centered in the middle of the country helps bring us mostly clear skies and winds from the northwest bring in drier air.  Temperatures dip back into the mid-30s to near 40 for overnight lows. Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

That large bubble of high pressure remains in control through midweek, locking cool air into the region Tuesday and Wednesday.  Even with lots of sun in the sky, we’re looking at temperatures below normal, with still a bit of a breeze just for effect.  Highs both days stall out near 50 to the low 50s, with Tuesday night lows near 30 to the mid-30s. Confidence: Medium-High

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Ian Livingston · November 16, 2013