D.C. area forecast: Trending milder until possible weekend wintry mess

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

7
Bests Monday with slightly more sun and warmer feel.

Express Forecast

Today: Partly sunny. Highs: 48-52.

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows: 36-42.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Highs: 52-56.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Temperature Map

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map. See interactive map on our Weather Wall.

A flutter of weak weather systems keeps persistent clouds cover around into early next week. But temperatures trend comfortably milder through Thursday. They then start a slide as rain chances increase Thursday night and potentially last into Saturday.  By Sunday, a new wave on the front brings mixed precipitation chances.

Today (Tuesday):  A weak upper level trough of low pressure passes through the area today to keep clouds around yet again.  But some additional sunshine sneaks out between the clouds at least as temperatures edge up just a bit warmer.  Highs should range in the upper 40s to low 50s with light breezes from the south at about 5 mph.  Confidence: High

Tonight: Light breezes from the south persist, but some breaks in the overnight cloud cover could still allow temperatures to dip into the middle to upper 30s or probably be closer to 40 right in the city.  Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Wednesday): More mostly cloudy skies, but temperatures edge up by afternoon into the middle 50s offering downright comfortable conditions compared to the chill of last week.  Light breezes continue to come from the south.  Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with lows only dipping to the middle to upper 40s with the city holding potentially right around 50.  The heaters get a bit of a break.  Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday keeps the clouds but the mild morning combined with winds from the southwest allow temperatures to surge into the very comfortable low to middle 60s by afternoon. With the cold front approaching, we run a 30% chance of finally seeing some rain fall from all these clouds by afternoon especially heading toward evening.  Thursday night rain risks ratchet up to 60%, but should mainly be the light variety as lows only drop into the 50s.  Confidence: Medium

Friday and Friday night should see periods of rain around the area, but temperatures remain relatively mild until later Friday night.  Highs Friday should be in the lower 60s (warmer if we get some bigger breaks between rain periods) with temperatures Friday evening in the upper 50s falling to the colder upper 30s to low 40s by Saturday dawn.  Confidence: Medium

Snow Potential Index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least ~1″ of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

1 (→) Risk is still there for Sunday; but no higher yet.

Partial clearing during the day Saturday, but chilly, with temperatures holding steady in the 40s. Partly cloudy and cold Saturday night, with lows 25-30 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday is still a tricky call where you will have to keep checking back here for updates.  We expect a wave of low pressure to move northward along the cold front to our south.  At first, we could see mixed precipitation by late morning or early afternoon which could linger into Sunday night before eventually changing to all rain.  The District and points south and east should change over to rain faster (maybe as early as Sunday evening, while north and west of the city could linger with frozen issues deeper into the night).  As of right now, it seems like the entire area should be warm enough by Monday morning’s commute to keep everything wet vs. frozen.  But again, this is a tricky story until we get closer.  Confidence: Low-Medium

Also on Capital Weather Gang

PM Update: Staying mainly gray into early Tuesday; central U.S. snow and cold