Since our comprehensive storm overview prepared earlier today, there are no major changes to the forecast. Model data continue to tell roughly the same story they’ve been telling us for the last few days:
* We start with a period of snow or snow and sleet, mid-morning to noon Sunday; accumulations roughly 0.5-2″.
* Snow and sleet transitions to sleet and freezing rain Sunday afternoon.
* Freezing rain is expected Sunday night, and a transition to plain rain will occur from the Bay westward during the course of the night, but may not make it far beyond the I-95 corridor. Along and west of a line from Manassas to Fairfax to Rockville, significant ice accumulation could occur.
But as I examined the latest model runs this evening, it struck me that west central Virginia – perhaps around the Charlottesville-Staunton-Harrisonburg area may get hit particularly hard by this. It likely receives some of the heaviest precipitation, with temperatures below freezing for a long duration. I redrew the ice accumulation map to reflect this change.
The snowfall map, below, is unchanged from earlier today.