D.C. area forecast: Early week cold, snow shower chance; late week warm-up

December 16, 2013

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

4
Can’t rate a day high which struggles to pass freezing. Ready for the late week warm-up now.

Express Forecast

Today: Partly cloudy, cold. Highs: 31-35.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows: 22-26.

Tomorrow: Variably cloudy, chance snow showers. Highs: 37-41.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Temperature Map

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map. See interactive map on our Weather Wall.

The first half of the week is decidedly winter-like.  Highs are mostly in the 30s to near 40, and we could see a snow shower or two, mainly Tuesday.  The warm-up begins Thursday and likely peaks Friday, when 60 is possible.  The weekend probably stays on the mild side of average  but is on the unsettled side, with possible rain showers.

Today (Monday): The first day of the work week is the coldest.  After starting the day in the 20s, temperatures make little headway, with highs only around 30-32 in the colder north and west suburbs, and around the mid-30s in the District and points south and east. The sky features a mix of clouds and sun with winds from the northwest at 10-15 mph, making it feel like the 20s a good part of the day. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies early become mostly cloudy late at night as a disturbance passes to our north.  There’s a 10-30 percent chance of pre-dawn snow showers, with highest odds towards Frederick and Leesburg, and the lowest southeast of the District. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Tuesday): There’s a slight chance of an early morning snow shower or flurry. Then it’s partly sunny and not quite as cold, with highs around 40 (upper 30s colder suburbs, low 40s south and east of the District).  Winds are light from the west.  Towards evening, we may see an increase in clouds. Confidence: Medium

Snow Potential Index

A daily assessment of the potential for *accumulating* snow for the next week on a 1-10 scale.

1 (↓) Will be tough to squeeze out more than a dusting Tuesday; weekend trending mild/wet, not white.

Tomorrow night: A second disturbance produces a small chance of precipitation in the evening, in the form of snow showers in the north and west suburbs (30% chance), and rain or snow showers from the District and to the south and east (20% chance). This disturbance quickly exits the region late at night, with lows ranging from the low 20s in the colder suburbs to the upper 20s downtown. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday’s chilly but calm – with highs only around 40 and lows overnight ranging through the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

Warmer air eases into the region Thursday, with highs in the upper 40s to near 50, under partly to mostly sunny skies.  Not as cold Thursday night, with lows from the upper 30s in the colder suburbs to the low 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A big push of mild air from the south makes Friday the work week’s warmest day.  Highs make a run at 60 but increasing afternoon clouds and a shower or two could play spoiler (30 percent chance).  Very mild Friday night with a 40 percent chance of showers, with lows 45-50.  Confidence: Medium

A cold front gets hung up to our northwest over the weekend, keeping it unsettled.  As we probably remain on the warm side of the front,  highs may well be in the 50s with lows in the 40s. Showers are possible both days, but odds are highest further west, especially towards the mountains. Stay tuned for more details as this forecast is uncertain and will be refined in the coming days. Confidence: Low-Medium

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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