D.C. area forecast: Temperatures down and up through Monday, then way down

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

4
Not the coldest and windiest day of the winter but more than enough of both for me.

Express Forecast

Today: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. Highs: Near 30 to mid-30s.

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, snow showers possible after midnight. Lows: Near 20 to mid-20s.

Tomorrow: Early snow shower? Mostly sunny p.m. Highs: Near 40 to mid-40s.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Temperature Map

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map. See interactive map on our Weather Wall.

We’ve begun our slow climb out of the typical coldest time of the year, but you certainly won’t notice that today or most of next week. We’ve got another moisture-starved clipper passing by tonight into early tomorrow, and a quite nice Martin Luther King Jr Day on tap, but then we get a reminder it’s still mid-winter as long-lasting Arctic air makes a run for us starting on Tuesday.

Today (Saturday): Any remnant clouds from the overnight clipper should be out of here quick if not to start the day. Skies are mostly sunny in general after that, but perhaps increasing clouds again by sunset. Highs range from near 30 to the mid-30s. With winds sustained at 15-20 mph with higher gusts, expect wind chills in the 20s or even lower most of the day. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds thicken a bit as the next Alberta Clipper pushes in. Most of the (light) snow risk should be between midnight and dawn, but some strays may show up early. It’s only about a 40% chance, and accumulation should be limited to a dusting or so if/where it happens. Most likely another case where most of the area doesn’t see anything, but given cold temperatures, anything that falls sticks. Lows dip to near or below 20 in the north and west suburbs to the low-and-mid 20s most other spots. Winds thankfully slacken to about 5 mph or lower, shifting to the southwest. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Sunday): A few flurries or a snow shower may still be around early, then we trend clearer. There’s a bit of a question on highs, with a camp in the upper 30s to near 40 and another solidly in the mid-40s. I think the 40s option is most likely given warming temps aloft, but check back tomorrow for any updates. It’s another breezy one, with west winds around 10-15 mph and those “higher gusts.” Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Skies are mostly clear early, and we might see periods of cloudiness float by overnight. Dry though! Temperatures bottom out in the mid-20s to near 30 across most of the area. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Snow Potential Index

A daily assessment of the potential for at least ~1″ of snow in the next week, on a 1-10 scale.

2 (→) Another mostly dry clipper Sat night, flakes could fly Tue w/ Arctic front, and something to watch Thur/Fri.

Martin Luther King Jr Day is the winner of the next… well, long time most likely. Skies range from mostly sunny to partly cloudy as temperatures rise toward the upper 40s and near 50. Winds are light from the south, perhaps beginning to turn westerly late. Soak it up, as we make a sharp turn colder right after. Confidence: Medium-High

The next big Arctic front arrives overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Snow showers are possible as it passes, and we’ll need to lightly watch a low that may develop offshore as it gets by us. Main risk, if anything, is it keeps some light snow shower activity around into Tuesday locally. Off morning lows in the low-and-mid 20s, we won’t go far during the day. Afternoon temperatures mainly in the mid-and-upper 20s are possible. Wind chills should help make it sort of uncomfortable. Confidence: Medium

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.
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45
90-degree days year-to-date
Yearly Average
36
Record Most
67 (1980,2010)
Record Fewest
7 (1886,1905)
Last Year
24

At a Glance

Tue.

partlycloudyday
-- /92°

Wed.

thunderstorms
75° /93°
Drop 20%

Thu.

partlycloudyday
76° /92°

Fri.

thunderstorms
76° /90°
Drop 30%

Sat.

partlycloudyday
73° /85°

Sun.

partlycloudyday
70° /87°
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Jason Samenow · January 17, 2014

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