PM Update: Cold tonight and on Tuesday; afternoon storm updates from NOAA

** Winter storm watch Wednesday night and Thursday **

Temperature Map

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map. See interactive map on our Weather Wall.

Despite below average temperatures only rising to around 30 in the cold spots and the mid-30s in the warm, today was rather tranquil across the region. Of course, with the big storm looming midweek, not many folks are paying much mind to today’s weather anyway. Nothing very exciting into tomorrow, but remaining extra chilly.

Through Tonight: Skies trend partly clear and that’s the story most of the night. With fresh cold air, we all get chillier than normal for lows. Plan on readings ranging from near 10 in the coldest spots to around 20 downtown. Winds are light.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): It’s a cold day, but unlike most of the cold days this winter, it’s not terribly windy (5-10 mph from the north and northwest). So, highs mainly in the upper 20s to near 30 should feel rather bearable. Skies are partly sunny at the least as well — take in the rising sun angle!

See Jason Samenow’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter . For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Snow in Arlington on Feb. 9. (John Sonderman via Flickr)

Snow in Arlington on Feb. 9. (John Sonderman via Flickr)

Midweek storm: Some updates on the snow threat from the Weather Prediction Center and NWS Baltimore/Washington via their afternoon releases…

WPC is still favoring the eastern solutions for now, as seen in this liquid equivalent precipitation map and the discussion snippet below (see the whole thing):

Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 7 p.m. Wed through 7 p.m. Thurs.

Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 7 p.m. Wed through 7 p.m. Thurs.

AT THIS POINT…THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS ON ITS OWN WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING EARLIER AND DEEPER THAN THEN CONSENSUS…AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS ON DAY 3. DUE TO ITS MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION…THERE WAS LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE QPF. INSTEAD…THE QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM/UKMET…THOUGH THE 12Z NAM QPF LOOKED OVERDONE.

Potential for 4" or more snow from the Weather Prediction Center via their afternoon update.

Potential for 4″ or more snow from the Weather Prediction Center via their afternoon update.

Related: Heavy snow threat for D.C. area Wednesday night and Thursday, but mix, rain also possible

Here’s WPC’s most recent forecast position of the low pressure for 7 a.m. Thursday morning. Quite good in general for this area:

Forecast position of the low pressure at 7 a.m. Thursday via WPC.

Forecast position of the low pressure at 7 a.m. Thursday via WPC.

The local NWS office has recently bumped up probabilities for 4″+ at this time. You can see all their products at their site.

NWS Baltimore/Washington odds of at least 4 inches of snow, ending 8 a.m. Thursday.

NWS Baltimore/Washington odds of at least 4 inches of snow, ending 8 p.m. Thursday.

We’ll be blogging the models this evening, from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m.

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Also on Capital Weather Gang

Winter storm watch Wednesday night and Thursday; model snowfall maps