Forecast on track: 5-10″ expected near D.C., 8-14″ in western suburbs (LIVE FORECAST UPDATES)

*** Important: Follow our latest live updates at this link: Capital Weather Gang Live Snow Blog ***

Capital Weather Gang snow accumulation forecast, version 2, issued 2 p.m. Wednesday

After reviewing this morning’s model runs, we’ve decided to only make minor changes to our accumulation forecast.

  • We’ve decreased the bust potential for the immediate D.C. area and points west, as it appears very likely at least 5-8 inches of snow will fall in this zone.
  • We expanded the 8-14″ zone west, as well as the 5-10″ zone in West Virginia and western Maryland

Generally, we still expect 5 to 14 inches of snow across the region, except 2-6 inches in southern Maryland.

Some key points about the forecast:

  • Snow starts tonight between 7 and 9 p.m. south to north across the region
  • Snow falls heavily tonight, with 4-8 inches of accumulation by 7 a.m. Locally heavier amounts are possible.
  • Near I-95 (within 15 miles) and points east, snow likely mixes with and changes to sleet and freezing rain Thursday morning, between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. from east to west.  Locations near the Chesapeake Bay and southern Maryland may turn to plain rain.
  • From western Fairfax County and western Montgomery county (from roughly Gaithersburg to Oakton to Manassas) and points west, precipitation remains mostly snow  during the day, although some sleet could mix in at times, especially during the morning. Another 4-6 inches of accumulation are possible.
  • In the afternoon, areas getting mixed precipitation may turn back to snow, with light additional accumulations of 1-2″ possible.  However, how heavy the snow is in this second round and whether temperatures are cold enough for more meaningful accumulation is uncertain.

We’re bringing you the live updates here. To discuss the forecast and more, sound off in the comments below.

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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