PM Update: A warm Wednesday, with a few strong storms possible


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The weather has been so quiet and agreeable since last Friday, I feel a little rusty forecasting rain. But chances are, some is on the way by tomorrow afternoon and evening. And, yes, a strong thunderstorm or two may enter the mix.

Through Tonight: Mostly cloudy and mild overnight, with a slight chance of showers, mainly after 11 p.m. The shower risk ranges from 20 percent in the immediate metro region to 30 percent south and southeast of town. Overnight lows range from the upper 50s to low 60s with light winds.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Variably cloudy for the balance of the morning and early afternoon hours – with intervals of sunshine. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases gradually from mid-afternoon (30 percent) onwards, with the best chance (60 percent) between roughly 5 and 8 p.m. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a slight risk of severe storms.

storms_01

“With a warm front lingering in our region, along with a fairly moist air mass and modest wind shear, any destabilization could produce scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.  The greatest threats will be heavy rain (possibly local flash flooding), lightning and damaging winds,” says Jeff Halverson, Capital Weather Gang’s severe weather expert. “Tornadic potential appears low.  CWG will closely monitor the situation through the day tomorrow.”

Highs are around 80, with lights winds out of the south and southeast – except for the possibility of strong gusts in thunderstorms.

See Matt Rogers’ forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter . For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Pollen: Tree counts are HIGH at 174.12 grains per cubic meter. Grass counts are HIGH at 22.04 grains per cubic meter. Weed pollen and mold spores counts are LOW.


Ducklings shake water out of their down. May 17, 2014 at the Reflecting Pool. (Phil Yabut via Flickr)

Balkans flooding – before and after:  The flooding in the Balkans last Thursday and Friday, the worst in over a century, has literally transformed the landscape.  See this before (top) and after (bottom) satellite image sequence from NASA – which shows the incredible swelling of the Sava River.


May 18, 2013 (NASA)

May 19, 2014. Via NASA: “The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured an image of flooding in Croatia, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina on May 19, 2014. The second image (top) shows the same area one year ago during a more typical spring.”
Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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Jason Samenow · May 20, 2014