D.C. area forecast: Scattered showers and storms a threat today; looking toward a mostly nice holiday weekend

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

6
Minus a few for muggy and maybe stormy late, though not overly hot with highs near or short of 80.

Express Forecast

Today: Warm and humid. Scattered showers and storms likely. Highs: Upper 70s to near 80.

Tonight: Muggy with scattered evening showers and storms likely. Lows: Mid-60s.

Tomorrow: Partly sunny and becoming less humid. Isolated shower or t’shower? Highs: Low-to-mid 80s.

FORECAST IN DETAIL


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With a warm and humid air mass in place today, we’ll have to watch the potential for showers and thunderstorms to come at us from the northwest, especially this afternoon into evening when the atmosphere may support a few strong to severe storms. The warmth remains tomorrow but the humidity gradually exits. Friday and Saturday are briefly cooler with at least a slight chance of a shower, followed by warmer and rather nice conditions for the middle and end of the Memorial Day weekend.

Today (Wednesday): A few showers are possible (30% chance) early-to-mid morning. Skies may then turn partly sunny for a time before scattered showers and thunderstorms become more likely (60-70% chance) during the afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe with strong winds and hail, especially after 3 p.m. or so. Overall it’s a warm and humid day, with light winds from the south-southwest near 5-10 mph and highs topping out in the upper 70s to near 80. Confidence: Medium



Tonight: Shower and storm chances continue at 60-70% during the evening, again with the potential for a few storms to be strong to severe. Any activity should dissipate after midnight, as mostly cloudy skies linger and muggy lows bottom in the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Thursday): Skies turn partly sunny with the help of a drying breeze from the west-northwest around 10-15 mph. We’re still warm with highs in the low-to-mid 80s, but you’ll notice the lowering humidity. Can’t rule out an isolated shower or thundershower. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Dew points continue to drop, and the lower humidity together with partly to mostly clear skies allow temperatures to cool nicely. Most spots should see lows dip into the mid-to-upper 50s, with downtown perhaps holding up near 60. Confidence: High

A LOOK AHEAD

On Friday an upper-level system tries to pass just to our north and northeast, but it may come close enough to trigger a few afternoon showers. We’ll call it a 30% chance for now. Otherwise it’s a partly sunny and cooler day with highs in the 70s and comfortable humidity. Still a 30% chance of showers Friday evening, then skies may clear overnight as lows drop back to the 50s. Confidence: Medium

The Memorial Day Weekend shapes up as partly to mostly sunny with gradually warmer temperatures. Saturday starts the holiday off with highs in the 70s and a 20-30% chance for a shower or thundershower, while Sunday and Monday highs should reach the upper 70s to low 80s with little to no chance of rain the way it looks now. Mid-50s to low 60s should do it for Saturday night and Sunday night lows. Confidence: Medium

Dan Stillman is a meteorologist and editor for the Capital Weather Gang. He earned an M.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University, and a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences from the University of Michigan.
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Dan Stillman · May 21, 2014