PM Update: Isolated storm risk through evening, better odds late night into Thursday; mid-June mountain snow


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11:05 p.m. Update: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing across the D.C.-Baltimore area late this evening, with a particularly strong storm now moving east through Baltimore and prompting a severe thunderstorm warning until 11:45 p.m. There’s another severe thunderstorm warning until the same time for a storm moving east from central Frederick County into central Carroll County. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for northern Maryland, including Frederick, Carroll and Howard counties, until 5 a.m. The current activity has formed well ahead of an organized line of thunderstorms moving southeast through southwest Pennsylvania and still several hours from the D.C. area. There’s a chance those storms fizzle on approach, but if they hold together they could come through as strong to severe.

From 5:10 p.m… Our first heat wave of the summer is in the books after another day of highs heading well into the 90s (it appears all three airports fell just shy of records; Reagan National’s high was 95 as of 4:30 p.m., compared to the record of 97). If we’re lucky, we may stop the streak at three given clouds and showers or storms likely to be around tomorrow. It probably won’t be easy if we do miss that mark. Isolated storms are also possible this evening, though most spots should stay dry before bedtime.

Through Tonight: Other than a few isolated pop ups (20-30% chance), which could be strong to maybe severe given all the heat and moisture, we’re looking at a partly clear evening. Clouds increase late as storms well to the northwest move this way. It’s not apparent anything of consequence makes it here, but rain and rumble odds go up to about 40-50% in the midnight to pre-dawn period. There’s a chance these could be strong to severe if they make it, though for now it does not appear too bad on that angle.

Capital Weather Gang’s severe storms expert Jeff Halverson notes, “there may be enough [instability] and marginal shear to keep any [convective system] that hits our doorstep going in an organized manner, but generally sub-severe.” Warm and sticky either way, with low temps mainly in the 70-77 range for lows.

Tomorrow (Thursday): A cold front slowly slinks into and through the area during the day. That means more clouds, shower and storm chances reaching likely, and probably slightly less heat. If we see enough sun, near and above 90 is a good bet area wide. If it’s cloudier and rainier, highs in the mid-and-upper 80s are more likely. I do think showers and storms are on the earlier side of “typical,” perhaps focused on the morning into afternoon rather than afternoon into evening. Widespread severe weather is not a great risk, but isolated damaging winds are possible if things come together right.

See Jason Samenow’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter . For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Mid-June snow: Over a foot of snow has fallen in parts of the high country in the Intermountain West, with more on the way in some spots like Montana.

Folks in the mountains  of Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana woke up to plenty of fresh powder this morning, not quite what you’d expect in Mid-June even at elevation.


A snow covered section of Utah this morning as viewed from a plane. (Kevin Ambrose)

(Kevin Ambrose)

(Kevin Ambrose)

 

Up in Glacier National Park in Montana, it looks quite a bit like mid-winter. Perhaps even crazier is the same state (far eastern portions) saw a sizeable tornado yesterday.

Of course, since it is just about summer (or already there if you’re a meteorologist), things tend to melt fast once the sun comes out.

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.
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Jason Samenow · June 18