D.C. area forecast: Tropical air spawns showers and storms; weekend not as hot but not all dry

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

3
After last 2 hot days, storms welcome to cool things down as long as they stay moderate as expected. David, CWG

Express Forecast

Today: T-storms likely, most numerous afternoon. Highs: 87-91.

Tonight: Storms end in evening. Lows: 65-70.

Tomorrow: Clearing and drier. Highs: 83-87.

FORECAST IN DETAIL


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Today is one to just prepare for storms early and keep them on the agenda until late night. They are more likely in the afternoon but no time is safe. The good news is they mark the beginning of a cooler and drier trend that should carry right through the weekend. However, our luck is not as good as recent weeks with another likely thunderstorm day on Saturday. The summer solstice arrives on Saturday, but for my money, summer is already here in spades no matter what the sun angle says.

Today (Thursday): Thunderstorms could be slipping down from Pennsylvania as early as daybreak. However, it is quite possible that the first wave of storms from the overnight fades or die out before reaching most of the region.

storms_01The wait for reinforcements should not take long with the best potential for thunderstorms to erupt over the area by late morning into mid-afternoon (80 percent chance). The good thing about an early start would be less severe potential and curtailed heating. Humidity is at its peak so those upper 80s to around 90 are still going to be uncomfortable. Downpours could bring as much as an inch to some places but for most .25 to .50″ is a more likely outcome. Winds are light and variable. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tonight: Showers and an isolated thunderstorm (50% chance) could linger as late as midnight but more likely they clear the area by early evening. Winds are still light from the north and humidity hangs tough. Lows eventually reach the mid-60s to near 70. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Friday): Skies should clear out quickly and humidity will be noticeably lower. The high sun angle still guarantees highs in the mid-to-upper 80s by afternoon so the sweat factor is still high. Winds should be nearly calm. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Things get really nice in the evening with readings quickly slipping to the upper 70s making for a great time to go out for a stroll and catch Jupiter masquerading as the first evening star on the western horizon at twilight. Lows drop to the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday is likely to break our string of beautiful weekends. Not that it is horrible, but a weak storm coming in from the Midwest is all it takes to pull up a good deal of that moisture that was effectively forced south on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms (60% chance) are possible throughout the day as this system struggles to push the front north of the area. While most areas see just light to moderate amounts, some repeat activity could give some spots (locations south of the District favored) locally heavy amounts.    Clouds may keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but mid-80s are possible if we manage a bit of sun.  The showers should die out over the course of the evening but outside events are still not in the clear. Clearing does come later and lows drop to the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium

Sunday could well be the best day of the bunch with mainly sunny skies, lower humidity, and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. There could still be a rogue thunderstorm or two sneak into the region (20% chance) in the afternoon but for most a dry day is the rule. Clearing skies in the evening and 70s are a delight. Overnight lows fall to the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium

Monday is a quintessential summer day with a mainly sunny morning, highs in the mid-80s and a 30% chance of pop up afternoon thunderstorms. Confidence: Medium

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