D.C. area forecast: Nice start to work week, becoming more humid, stormy midweek

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

6
Good-looking day, but points off for Monday (-1), World Cup heart-breaker (-2), touch of humidity (-1).

Express Forecast

Today: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs: 82-87.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows: 60-67.

Tomorrow: Partly sunny, slight p.m. storm chance. Highs: 82-87.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The first official week of summer is summerlike with very warm and humid conditions as well as the occasional thunderstorm chance. But today is pretty comfortable overall and stays storm-free. It’s the mid-to-late week period which turns more sticky and stormy. The weekend, at the moment, is a bit of a wild card.

nice day
Today (Monday): I’m awarding a nice day stamp, but it’s borderline too warm and humid. Under partly to mostly skies, highs reach the mid-80s, with humidity in the moderate range (dew points 59-63). Winds are light from the south at around 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Humidity continues its gradual climb, with dew points climbing into the mid-60s by morning. Lows range from the low-to-mid 60s in our cooler suburbs to the upper 60s downtown. Winds are light from the south. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Tuesday): It turns downright muggy (with dew points rising to near 70) with moist, tropical air streaming into the region. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy and we could see an isolated storm pop-up in the afternoon (20 percent chance). Highs are in the mid-80s, but feel closer to 90. Winds from the south around 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: A few widely scattered evening storms are possible (30 percent chance). Otherwise, it’s partly cloudy and humid, with lows from the upper 60s in our cooler suburbs to the low-to-mid 70s downtown. Light winds from the south.Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

It’s very warm and humid out ahead of a cold front on Wednesday, with highs 85-90. But, once the front arrives, showers and storms are likely (some may be heavy) in the afternoon into the evening. Storm chances diminish overnight, with lows in the mid-60s to low 70s (downtown). Confidence: Medium

Wednesday’s front is probably far enough to our south and east to result in mostly dry weather Thursday and Friday – although I can’t totally rule out a late day storm (15 percent chance Thursday, 25 percent chance Friday). Humidity may drop a hair as well, but it’s seasonably warm with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.  Both Thursday and Friday nights are partly cloudy, with lows mostly in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

A front may try to set up over the region over the weekend increasing humidity and shower and storm chances, or it may not. The GFS model suggests the former which would mean numerous showers and storms. The European model, on the other hand, keeps the front to our south favoring a drier forecast. For now, I’ll call for partly cloudy skies both days with a 40 percent chance of showers and storms Saturday, and 30 percent chance Sunday. Highs should be in the 80s, with lows in the 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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