D.C. area forecast: Another weekend winner today, then heating up ahead of the Fourth

June 29

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

8
Increasing p.m. clouds may detract a bit, but otherwise the weekend ends about as nice as it started!

Express Forecast

Today: Partly sunny, low humidity. Highs: Mid-80s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy to overcast. Lows: Mid-to-upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Partly sunny & humid. 30% chance of p.m. storms. Highs: Mid-80s to near 90.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

That old trend of nice weekends and unsettled weekdays stretching way back into spring looks to continue, as yesterday and today feature by far the most pleasant weather of the upcoming forecast period, though the Fourth has some promise. Heat and humidity gradually return starting tomorrow as an area of high pressure sets up shop offshore. By midweek, we’re really in the soup, with triple-digit heat indices and the potential for some strong stronger storms.

nice day

Today (Sunday): High pressure slides off the coast but we should still see a good amount of sun through at least the first half of the day. As we get into the afternoon, increasing mid- and high-level clouds may begin to filter the sun and offer more in the way of shade. The vast majority of shower activity should be confined to the mountains, with only a slight chance in the metro area. Otherwise, it’s another winner, as the humidity is lower than it could be this time of year (dew points in the 50s) and highs reach the mid-80s. Winds are light out of the south-southeast at 5-10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: Not much to talk about other than the chance of an isolated evening shower mainly west toward the mountains. It’s mostly cloudy, if not totally overcast. And with light winds and rising humidity, a bit of fog is possible in areas that see a few breaks in the higher clouds. Overnight lows run in the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek, and your first look at the forecast for the Fourth…

Tomorrow (Monday): That summertime feeling is back as light winds from the south usher in warmer and more humid air, though not oppressive. Partial sun should be enough to push highs to the mid-80s to near 90. With the added moisture and instability, afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances increase to around 30%, but high pressure still offshore may exert just enough influence to limit any activity to the western suburbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Any showers or thunderstorms around during the early evening should diminish quickly after sunset.  It’s a warm and muggy summer night with partly to mostly cloudy skies, overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, and an outside chance that a complex of showers and thunderstorms approaches toward dawn. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Any early-morning showers or thunderstorms likely give way to mostly sunny skies for the balance of Tuesday morning. That sends the mercury climbing toward hot afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90s.  Instability rises along with the temperatures and bubbling clouds begin to obscure the sky by afternoon. There’s a 30% chance for late-afternoon or evening showers and storms, with again the western suburbs perhaps having the best chance. Tuesday night is downright steamy, with partly cloudy skies and lows only dropping to the mid-to-upper 70s. Confidence: Medium-High

Wednesday brings the peak of heat this week, and along with that, it also brings the peak of storm chances.  Ahead of a slow-moving front, mostly sunny skies pump it up to at least the mid-90s for highs. Combine that with very high humidity (dewpoints topping 70) and we’re talking an afternoon heat index near 100. A 50% chance of storms during the afternoon into evening means possible relief for some, though we’ll need to watch for areas of locally heavy rainfall. Confidence: Medium

Looking forward toward the end-of-the-week holiday, the front moving through on Thursday keeps the chance of showers and storms going as highs head back to near or past 90. An area of high pressure pushing in behind the front tries to clear us out for the Fourth of July, but a slower-moving front could spell a lingering shower and storm chance, so check back as the forecast hopefully becomes more certain. Best bet for July 4th temperatures looks like highs in the 80s to near 90. Confidence: Low

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