D.C. area forecast: Steamy start to week with possible severe storms

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

2
Hideous humidity and heavy storm chances don’t score high.

Express Forecast

Today: Hot, humid, with likely afternoon and evening storms. Highs: 90-94.

Tonight: Evening storms likely, then chance of showers/storms. Lows: 70-75.

Tomorrow: Showers and storms likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs: 87-91.

FORECAST IN DETAIL


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

A big cold front comes through early this week, but takes its sweet time. Before it finally exits late Tuesday, we can expect heat, humidity and at least a couple rounds of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe.  Delightful polar air arrives Wednesday and Thursday- pretty much certain to be the week’s nicest days.  The close to the work week and the weekend turn unsettled as low pressure attempts to scoot through the region.

Today (Monday): Partly to mostly cloudy and very muggy during the morning into mid-afternoon. Before any storms move in, highs reach the low 90s (but feel like the upper 90s) with winds from the southwest around 10 mph. Beginning around 2 or 3 p.m., a few pop-up storms may fire, especially in our western areas.  The most likely period for more organized, widespread storm activity is between 4-8 p.m. but this timing is subject to change, so keep apprised of updates. Storms that develop could contain damaging winds in addition to torrential rain and frequent lightning. CWG’s severe weather expert Jeff Halverson will have a detailed overview on the storm potential later this morning.  Confidence: Medium-High


Tonight: Storms are likely (70%) in the evening, but should decrease in coverage and intensity by around 10 p.m.  Some additional storms could try to pass through late at night (after midnight), but chances drop down to around 30% by pre-dawn.  It’s quite mild, with lows 70-75 and winds from the southwest around 5 mph.   Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Showers and thunderstorms are likely for a second straight day. Some storm activity could begin as soon as  the morning, but the best chances are in the afternoon to early evening.  Storms may turn severe, but – based on current data – locations east and southeast of I-95 likely have the greatest threat.  Outside of the storms, highs reach the upper 80s to near 90, with winds out of the southwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: A few evening storms could linger, especially east  of I-95.  Then skies partially clear with lows from near 60 in our cooler suburbs to the mid-to-upper 60s down. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday and Thursday are both gems as cooler than normal air streams into the region.  Under mostly sunny skies, highs Wednesday range from 77-82 (northwest-southeast). They edge up to  78-83 Thursday, with a few more clouds – especially in our western areas.  Wednesday night’s lows range from the borderline chilly low-to-mid 50s in our cooler suburbs to the low 60s downtown, under mostly clear skies.  Thursday night is similar, with lows just a couple degrees or so higher. Confidence: Medium-High

The period Friday through Sunday is a bit unsettled, though unlikely a washout.  The balance of Friday should be dry, with highs into the low-to-mid 80s but some increase in humidity.  Showers and storms are a slight possibility Friday night, with lows mostly in the 60s to near 70.  Saturday may have the highest chance of storms, with the best odds in the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Some showers could linger into Sunday, with the highest chances south and east of the District. Under variably cloudy skies,  highs both Saturday and Sunday should be in the low-to-mid 80s (possibly closer to 90 if more sunshine emerges)  Confidence: Low-Medium

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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Heat Tracker

45
90-degree days year-to-date
Yearly Average
36
Record Most
67 (1980,2010)
Record Fewest
7 (1886,1905)
Last Year
24

At a Glance

Sat.

sunny_clear
69° /88°

Sun.

partlycloudyday
70° /91°

Mon.

partlycloudyday
73° /90°

Tue.

partlycloudyday
71° /92°

Wed.

thunderstorms
71° /91°
Drop 20%

Thu.

thunderstorms
70° /90°
Drop 30%
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Dulles
BWI

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Dan Stillman · July 13, 2014

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