D.C. area forecast: Isolated storm risk today; increased threat of severe weather Sunday

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

8
Warmer and more humid than Friday, but not too bad for a weekend in July. PM storm or two?

Express Forecast

Today: Partly sunny. PM storm? Highs: Mid-80s to near 90.

Tonight: Iso. evening storm, partly cloudy. More storms pre-dawn? Lows: Near 70 to mid-70s.

Tomorrow:Variable clouds, numerous storms. Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s.

FORECAST IN DETAIL


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Compared to the last few months of weekends, this one’s shaping up a bit rockier on the weather front. And it’s all because of a strong cold front and a speedy jet stream moving our way over the next few days. Today should be much drier than not, but perhaps the same won’t be said about tomorrow. Storms are an isolated risk today, though they could be widespread on Sunday.

Today (Saturday): We’ll see variably cloudy conditions during the day, but probably partly cloudy on average. Clouds may be most numerous early, when there’s an outside risk of a shower or two, and again late as a few pop ups are possible. Any late-day storms should be isolated and tending sub-severe. Highs head for the upper 80s in general, with a range of about 86-90 most likely. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: There’s a risk of an evening storm, again quite isolated in nature if it occurs. After that, it’s partly cloudy until perhaps the pre-dawn hours when a complex of storms may move in from the northwest. Whether this storm complex makes it here is up for debate. If it does, it should be trending weaker as it passes. Lows range from near 70 to the mid-70s. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Sunday): The storm risk that ticks up before dawn should wane after dawn, with skies trending partly cloudy. How high temperatures get is somewhat dependent on clouds vs. sunshine, which is to be determined. That said, it should be warmer than today with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.

That abundant warmth will want to mix with high humidity and increasingly strong jet stream winds aloft during the afternoon and evening, potentially leading to a severe storm outbreak in the region. There’s still plenty to work out, but the theoretical ceiling is quite high. Anything from a line of damaging storms to hail and tornadoes are a risk should it come together. Heavy rain is of course also a threat. We’ll refine over the next day or so. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: One last night with a mid-summer feel to it. Showers and storms may continue at times through the night, probably favoring the evening though if the atmosphere isn’t worked over from daytime activity. Temperatures fall to about 70 in the suburbs while mid-70s are more likely in urban centers. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Monday is our last day, for at least a few, with temperatures near what we’d expect in July. Highs range from 83-88, but impacts from the cold front should be increasingly noticeable as the day goes. That front should pass early enough to keep rain risks mostly in the morning, and even there it might not be much. West winds behind the front should make the day mild though before cooler air filters in more strongly at night. Confidence: Medium

Tuesday starts off with very pleasant temperatures in the 60s. As Camden alluded to yesterday, this looks like a 10 on the Daily Digit from here. Perhaps we can keep the digit prediction going through then? Highs are in the upper 70s and low 80s, with humidity so low you’ll wonder where it went. Confidence: Medium

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.
Continue reading
Comments
Show Comments
Most Read Local
Next Story
Angela Fritz · July 25, 2014