9:25 a.m. Update: After some early-morning showers that passed through, the main batch of showers is currently passing south of the metro area. A few light showers are possible locally through around 1 p.m. But much of the day may be mostly dry until the threat of severe storms, which looks to be focused on the 5-11 p.m. period.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
It looks to be an active day across the mid-Atlantic and the Storm Prediction Center has us in the threat zone for a variety of severe weather. A couple rounds of storms are possible, one during the morning into early afternoon and another toward and during the evening. It’s the second round that could bring the best chance for severe weather, so check back here and on our social media feeds for updates through the day, and don’t be surprised if a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is issued for the area. After today, though, improvement is in the cards with another round of cooler and drier weather taking hold as we head toward midweek.
Today (Sunday): Scattered showers and thunderstorms could move across the area during the morning into early afternoon with a 50% chance of getting wet in any given location. Some storms could be strong with heavy rain and gusty winds, but the better chance of severe weather should wait until late in the day and this evening. It’s a partly to mostly cloudy day, but enough afternoon breaks of sun, along with warm and humid highs in the mid-80s to near 90, could set the stage for strong to severe storms to move into the area mainly after 6 p.m. or so. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Approximately 6-10 p.m. looks to be the best chance (70%) for seeing strong to severe storms moving west to east across the area, but exact timing is easily subject to change. With these storms, we have the possibility of all forms of severe weather, including hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, in addition to heavy rain and frequent lightning. Storms remain possible through the overnight, but coverage and intensity should wane toward and after midnight. Overnight lows stay up near 70 to the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium
For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the midweek…
Tomorrow (Monday): The front finally works its way through during the morning and may bring a stray shower or storm along with it (30% chance). As the day goes on though, we’ll notice the humidity drop as winds become breezy from the west-northwest, at around 15-20 mph with some higher gusts. Highs likely top out in the mid-80s as skies gradually clear to mostly sunny. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Cooler, drier air continues to work into the region and that leads to a lovely evening and a nice overnight. The breeze eases somewhat, to about 10 mph overnight, and skies are mostly clear. I’ll be popping the windows open myself, as nighttime lows drop into the upper 50s to low 60s (suburbs to city). Confidence: Medium-High
A LOOK AHEAD
Now this is what I’m looking forward to. You won’t exactly need a jacket Tuesday and Wednesday, but it’s a nice cool down to close out the normally sweltering month of July. Canadian high pressure brings plenty of sun with the shower threat slim to none. Daytime temperatures should spend most of their time in the 70s, with highs reaching near 80 to the low 80s and very low humidity. Tuesday night and Wednesday night lows range from the mid-to-upper 50s across many of the suburbs, to near 60 to the low 60s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High
Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast