D.C. area forecast: Cloudier and muggier; rain a risk today through this weekend

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

7
Muggier cloud-capped temps head for mid-80s. Shower & thundershower chances grow as the day progresses.

Express Forecast

Today: Cloudy. Shower odds up. Highs: Mid-80s.

Tonight: Showers and rumbles likely. Lows: mid-60s to around 70.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, showers and storms possible. Highs: 79-83.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Periodic showers. Highs: Around 80 to mid-80s.

FORECAST IN DETAIL


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Mugginess, clouds, and showers today may only be the start of what to expect as the weekend progresses. With higher moisture levels and slow-moving rain potential, some downpours are possible within the broad-reaching muggy blanket. Dry periods may be as or more numerous than rainy ones, but timing is up in the air in all regards. As we get into the workweek, rain chances go down while temperatures go up–even near or above 90 again?

Today (Friday): Yes we have a slight (30%) chance of showers in the morning, but the best chance is the afternoon (50-60%). A few sub-severe thunderstorms could erupt in the warmer afternoon air as well. We may stay mostly to fully cloudy, even when not raining. Somewhat humid, with muggy dew points in the 60s will make us sweat a bit. At least clouds help hold back temperatures. with most of us heading for the mid-80s. South-southwest breezes blow in the 5-10 mph range. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: After a potentially quiet evening, it looks like we have an even greater rain risk from showers and thunderstorms (60-70% chance) as we get into and through the night. There could be some downpours that quickly escalate rain totals in spots, but it’s not clear it will be a widespread hit. Muggy conditions persist overnight as we barely cool into the mid-60s to around 70 downtown. Light east breezes around 5 mph may refresh us sporadically. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Saturday): We stay mainly cloudy but a few breaks in the clouds are possible. The more sunshine we see, the higher chance of storms later, though. Even without the sun, we have a 60% chance of getting wet. There should be some — possibly extensive — breaks in the rain, but it’s hard to pin down exact timing on any dry periods. Knowing lulls in showers & storms is always a stretch for meteorologists. The atmosphere is just too complex to map out and predict every rain occurrence in advance (we marvel about it but hope for higher resolution in the future). What I can plan on is highs mostly in the 79-83 range and breezes around 5 mph from the northeast. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: We have a continued 50-60% chance of overnight showers and perhaps a brief storm. Downpours remain possible, even if thunder doesn’t accompany many of them. Muggy low temperatures should hover in the upper 60s outside the Beltway to lower 70s downtown. Southeast breezes may persist around 5 mph. Residents in low-lying areas should keep an eye on nearby streams in the off-chance your location is unlucky enough to receive repeated downpours. Also remember to never drive across flooded roads! Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: Really could be nearly a copy of Saturday’s weather with persistent clouds, and a notable chance of showers and storms. Humidity levels remain rather uncomfortable as well. High temperatures hover around 80 in a few locations, but most of us should head toward the mid-80s if we see more than a couple breaks in the clouds. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night: We have a slight but growing chance at seeing a few stars overnight, with shower chances decreasing to around 30%. It isn’t much, but after a potentially murky weekend, any clearing should be appreciated! By just before dawn, we should briefly dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Confidence: Medium

For our Monday, an overall partly sunny sky may cloud up at times. Shower and storm chances still are around, but they decrease in likelihood to about a 35% chance. High temperatures should still get into a juicy-feeling mid-to-upper 80s. Enjoy the pool please, those summer weather lovers! (As long as you don’t hear thunder.) Confidence: Medium

Tuesday is a notch warmer and perhaps (luckily) not any more humid than Monday. Skies may stay mostly sunny, with only the slightest (10% chance?) of a shower or storm. High temperatures may make it up into the upper 80s to perhaps some low 90s south of town. Confidence: Medium

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Heat Tracker

45
90-degree days year-to-date
Yearly Average
36
Record Most
67 (1980,2010)
Record Fewest
7 (1886,1905)
Last Year
24

At a Glance

Sun.

partlycloudyday
71° /91°

Mon.

rain
73° /89°
Drop 20%

Tue.

partlycloudyday
73° /94°

Wed.

thunderstorms
75° /93°
Drop 20%

Thu.

thunderstorms
75° /93°
Drop 30%

Fri.

thunderstorms
74° /91°
Drop 30%
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Dulles
BWI

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A. Camden Walker · August 1, 2014

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