(Cross-posted from the Washington Post polling department's Behind the Numbers blog.)
In the the at-large council race, Michael D. Brown -- D.C.'s shadow senator -- may benefit from voter confusion that he is current At-Large Council member Michael A. Brown.
The lesser known Michael D. has taken a surprise 41-29 lead over 12-year incumbent Phil Mendelson among likely voters, according to a new Washington Post poll.
The chart below shows a very strong and positive relationship between Michael D.'s current support by ward (on the y-axis) and the proportion of votes Michael A. won by ward in the 2008 general election (x-axis).
Michael D. receives broad support in Wards 7 and 8, the two wards that overwhelmingly voted for Michael A. two years ago. Ward 3, which Michael D. calls home, is one of his weakest districts.
See the chart and read the full post at the Behind the Numbers blog .
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