(Cross-posted from the Washington Post polling department's Behind the Numbers blog.)
In the the at-large council race, Michael D. Brown -- D.C.'s shadow senator -- may benefit from voter confusion that he is current At-Large Council member Michael A. Brown.
The lesser known Michael D. has taken a surprise 41-29 lead over 12-year incumbent Phil Mendelson among likely voters, according to a new Washington Post poll.
The chart below shows a very strong and positive relationship between Michael D.'s current support by ward (on the y-axis) and the proportion of votes Michael A. won by ward in the 2008 general election (x-axis).
Michael D. receives broad support in Wards 7 and 8, the two wards that overwhelmingly voted for Michael A. two years ago. Ward 3, which Michael D. calls home, is one of his weakest districts.