NBA draft lottery: Time, TV, odds, history for each team


(Associated Press)

The NBA draft lottery is Tuesday night at 8 on ESPN, and hey, the Wizards aren’t in it!

With that breaking news out of the way, here’s a breakdown of each team’s chances and lottery history.

1. Milwaukee Bucks

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 25 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 64.3 percent

Worst possible result: No. 4 pick.

History: The Bucks have been in the lottery 14 times, scoring a better-than-expected result only twice, a worse result four times and an expected result eight times. In 2005, they scored the No. 1 pick despite having just a 6.3 percent chance to do so, taking Andrew Bogut with the pick.

2. Philadelphia 76ers

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 19.9 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 55.8 percent

Worst possible result: No. 5 pick.

Note: The Sixers also will get the Pelicans’ pick if it is not in the top 3 after last summer’s Jrue Holiday-Nerlens Noel trade. They have a 96 percent chance of getting New Orleans’s pick.

History: In 14 lottery appearances, the Sixers have never gotten screwed, which is a somewhat amazing, completely random fact. They’ve achieved a better-than-expected result in 50 percent of their lottery appearances, too.

3. Orlando Magic

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 15.6 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 46.9 percent

Worst possible result: No. 6 pick

Note: As a result of the mid-2012 trade that sent Dwight Howard to the Lakers, the Magic also will receive either the Denver Nuggets’ pick or the New York Knicks’ pick, whichever is lower.

History: The Magic has had 13 lottery picks over the years, scoring a better-than-expected pick three times (including 1993, when it scored the No. 1 pick with just a 1.52 percent chance of doing so) — and a worse pick three times.

4. Utah Jazz

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 11.9 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 37.8 percent

Worst possible result: No. 7 pick

History: Utah has had only five lottery picks and has more or less gotten what it expected, moving down just once — and only one spot — in 2005. In 2011, however, they had the rights to the Nets’ pick and were able to move up from the expected No. 6 pick to the No. 3 pick.

5. Boston Celtics

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 8.8 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 29.2 percent

Worst possible result: No. 8 pick

History: Of their 10 lottery appearances, the Celtics have moved up just once (three spots in 1986 to eventually take Len Bias). In 2007, Boston had the best chance of landing the No. 2 pick but dropped down to No. 5 and took Jeff Green.

6. L.A. Lakers

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 6.3 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 21.5 percent

Worst possible result: No. 9 pick

History: It’s only the third lottery appearance for the Lakers after they got exactly what they expected in 1994 and 2005.

7. Sacramento Kings

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 4.3 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 15 percent

Worst possible result: No. 10 pick

History: The Kings are in the lottery for the eighth consecutive year and 19th time overall. Befitting a team with such a dismal history, they’ve moved up just once, in 1989 when they moved up from the expected No. 6 pick to the No. 1 pick and took Pervis Ellison. In four of the past five seasons and nine times overall, they’ve received a worse-than-expected pick.

8. Detroit Pistons

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 2.8 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 10 percent

Worst possible result: No pick whatsoever (see note).

Note: If the Pistons drop to No. 9 or worse, the pick goes to Charlotte as part of the 2012 trade involving Ben Gordon.

History: Detroit has never moved up in its nine lottery appearances, but the most it has moved down is just one spot.

9. Cleveland Cavaliers

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 1.7 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 6.1 percent

Worst possible result: No. 12 pick

History: Last year, the Cavs moved up from the expected No. 3 pick to the No. 1 pick and snagged Anthony Bennett. It was the only time in 14 lottery appearances that they moved up.

10. New Orleans Pelicans

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 1.1 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 4.0 percent

Worst possible result: No pick whatsoever.

Note: New Orleans surrenders its pick to Philly if it doesn’t get a top 3 pick.

History: If any team can buck the odds in the lottery, it’s New Orleans. In 2012, the Hornets scored the No. 1 pick despite having just a 13.7 percent chance of doing so. In 1999 as the Charlotte Hornets, they moved up from the expected No. 13 pick to the No. 3 pick. And in 1991 and 1992, they moved up to take Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning with the No. 1 and No. 2 picks, respectively, despite the odds being heavily against them.

11. Denver Nuggets (via New York)

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 0.8 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 2.9 percent

Worst possible result: No. 14 pick.

Note: See Orlando Magic note, above. This pick may end up going to Orlando.

History: The Nuggets have never moved up in their nine previous lottery appearances and have, in fact, moved down seven times.

12. New York Knicks

See above. Wherever this pick ends up (and it has a 0.7 percent chance of being the No. 1 pick), it will end up in the hands of either Orlando or Denver. New York will not keep this pick.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: 0.6 percent

Chance of winning a top 3 pick: 2.2 percent

Worst possible result: No. 14 pick.

History: It’s Minnesota’s 18th lottery appearance and 10th straight appearance. They’ve never moved up once.

14. Phoenix Suns

Chance of winning the No. 1 pick: o.5 percent

Chance of winning at top 3 pick: 1.8 percent

History: The Suns have made 10 lottery appearances but haven’t moved up since 1987, when they moved up five spots to No. 2 and took Armen Gilliam.

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