DOJ’s big health care court case decision

The Obama administration faces a key decision on health reform this coming Monday: whether to ask a federal appeals court to take a second look at its ruling against the Affordable Care Act.

(Evan Vucci/Associated Press) In August, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in Atlanta found the health reform law’s individual mandate unconstitutional. That left the Obama administration with two options: Appeal the case to the Supreme Court, or ask the 11th Circuit to reconsider “en banc,” with all 11 judges weighing in. Politico Pulse reminds us this morning that the Obama administration must make that decision by Monday.

Why this matters: The administration’s “next move could play a huge role in whether the Supreme Court will rule on the law before the 2012 presidential election,” Politico’s Kate Nocera writes. Appealing to the Supreme Court would likely mean a decision before the end of this term in May 2012, right in the middle of election season. A second go-around with the 11th Circuit could push things back to the next term, which doesn’t start until next fall.

The conventional wisdom, so far, has the Department of Justice going straight to the Supreme Court. Since two appeals courts have issued conflicting decisions on health reform’s constitutionality, the case is all-but-certain to hit the Supreme Court. Asking for the review of one decision may just look like foot-dragging. Moreover, the 11th Circuit doesn’t look like a court that would be particularly receptive to the administration’s request: The Department of Justice originally asked for the case to be heard “en banc” and had it turned down.

One recent development could, however, could change the calculus here. A few weeks after the 11th Circuit ruled in August, another federal appeals court (this one in Virginia) also opined on a health reform challenge. That court issued a very different ruling: The plaintiffs didn’t even have standing to bring case in the first place. Armed with this new case law, the Obama administration could make a stronger case that the 11th Circuit should rethink its decision.

No matter what the Obama administration decides Monday, this case is near certain to hit the Supreme Court. The key question now is timing — and the political climate that come along with that.