How close are we to a deal? Taking the pulse of the debt debate

Ezra Klein writes:

At this point, it's fair to say we can see a deal -- or at least we think we can see a deal -- on the horizon. The two parties just can't strike it quite yet.

Before all this started, I asked a wise senator whether there was any chance we would manage to lift the debt ceiling well before the deadline. He looked at me as if I was, well, not-so-wise. "If there's one thing I've learned in my years around this place," he said, "it's that nothing happens until the last minute."

We're still not quite at the last minute. Boehner's plan will need to fail to convince Republicans of the political reality that they can't get past the Senate without compromising. There's a good chance that the market will need to panic or the government will have to stop sending out checks to convince Republicans of the economic reality that compromising to lift the debt ceiling is a necessary thing to do.

But once those two facts are established, the Reid and Boehner plans are fairly similar to one another, and it's not that difficult to see how they can be merged into a final compromise.

***

Chris Cillizza writes:

It’s desperation time in the debt ceiling debate.

With House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) having to push a vote on his bill back a full 24 hours after the Congressional Budget Office found that it didn’t save as much as he had pledged, there is a possibility that it collapses under its own weight before ir even makes it to the House floor. Boehner is doing everything he can to rally the troops.

But Tuesday was not a good day for the speaker’s legislation as conservative groups like the Heritage Foundation and the Club for Growth came out in opposition to it. And, Boehner isn’t getting any help from the 2012 field either with Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty both opposed to the bill.

If Boehner’s bill either collapses or fails in a floor vote -- both are real possibilities -- the attention will turn to the Senate, where the key player appears to be Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). McConnell has been supprotive of the House plan and may not want to say anything more publicly until the fight in the lower chamber plays itself out.

The possibility remains that it’s always darkest before the dawn. But it’s getting pretty dark out.

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