One of the most anticipated mock NFL drafts also happens to be one of the most shocking this year.
Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News released his (behind a paywall), and he has four quarterbacks going in the top 10 of tonight’s first round and five quarterbacks in the first the 12 picks. With the 10th overall pick, Gosselin has the Redskins selecting Florida State’s Christian Ponder.
It’s certainly possible the Redskins walk out of the draft with Ponder. We’ve heard in recent weeks that Coach Mike Shanahan is particularly high on both Ponder and TCU’s Andy Dalton. But if the Redskins actually nab Ponder with the 10th pick, well, that would be quite a surprise. Many analysts don’t have Ponder going anywhere close to No. 10. ESPN’s Mel Kiper doesn’t even have him as a first-rounder, much less a top 10 pick.
So what’s the likelihood of the Ponder pick actually happening? Well, tonight’s draft is among the most unpredictable in years, and that’s saying something. Gosselin would be the first to tell you just how difficult it is to predict the draft.
It’s universally agreed in NFL circles that Gosselin’s annual mock draft is among the best. A year ago, he had only nine of the 32 first-round picks guessed correctly — which was still better than many other draftniks. In the last ten years, the only Redskins first-round picks that he has nailed were LaRon Landry (2007) and Jason Campbell (2005). Based off his past 10 mock drafts, the Redskins would’ve selected Russell Okung (2010), Mark Sanchez (2009), Adam “Pacman” Jones (2005), Kellen Winslow (2004), Andre Gurode (2002) and Chris Chambers (2001).
The point here isn’t to poke Gosselin. If he thinks there’s going to be a serious run on quarterbacks early in the first round, it’s probably a decent bet. Rather, it’s always a good reminder that no one knows how the night will unfold. At Redskins Park, Shanahan himself won’t know until he’s on the clock and sees which nine guys are already off the board.