Is 10-11 wins for the Redskins too optimistic?

openingkicklogoAfter last week’s schedule release, 3,798 of you made time to play around with our Redskins Predictor, the tool that lets you go through the slate of games and choose whether Washington wins or loses each game. With the usual disclaimer about being able to pick games’ outcomes several months before they take place understood here, here’s what your initial impressions showed:

You’ve got the Redskins down for 10.3 expected wins, including an overwhelming majority under the impression Washington will win the Monday night opener at home against the Eagles (93%), Week 3 vs. the Lions (90%), Week 4 at the Raiders (94%), Week 9 vs. the Chargers (92%), Week 14 vs. the Chiefs (93%), and Week 16 vs. the Cowboys (85%). A smaller but still solid majority of you feel the Redskins will win Week 6 at the Cowboys (62%), Week 7 vs. the Bears (78%), Week 10 at the Vikings (73%), Week 11 at the Eagles (76%) and Week 13 vs. the Giants (74%).

That’s 11 wins, including 10 that 73% or more of you agree on.

The crowd feels Week 2 at the Packers (84%), Week 8 at the Broncos (87%), Week 12 on Monday night vs. the 49ers (77%), Week 15 at the Falcons (75%) and Week 17 at the Giants (55%) are the losses.

Individually, it’s hard to quibble with any one of those picks. Looks about right from where the Redskins stand. But do you really foresee a 5-1 record against the NFC East, where the division rivals seem to beat each other each year regardless of who is actually the better team? The masses predicting a 4-4 road mark seems reasonable, but isn’t there always that one away game against a team you shouldn’t lose to that jumps up and bites you? Like at Oakland maybe?

Plus this all assumes that RGIII starts the season healthy and remains that way, or that Kirk Cousins is highly effective at quarterback, and no other major maladies befall the team. The seasons rarely go like we think they will.

In any case, you might well believe 11-5 is perfectly reasonable at this point and looking at that schedule. If so, make your case in the comments. What are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the upcoming season, based on what we know now?

A big free agent pickup

For those of you who skip the comments and/or aren’t on Twitter, we’re excited to be adding John Keim to our Redskins coverage on July 1. If you’re not familiar with his work, this D.C. Sports Bog post should get you up to speed.

Maybe Rounds 2 and 3 are the place to be

From GFT74-Draft-In-1-Week at 12:52 p.m. yesterday:

A draftnick named Tony Pauline just said the following on ESPN 980:

There are only about 16 players with 1st round grades this year, but there are around 60 with a 2nd round grade. This means that if you’re picking in the first 10-15 picks in Round 3 you can get a 2nd round talent with a 3rd round pick.

Which suggests to me the thing to do is either 1) move up in 3rd or 2) move down in 2nd for more picks in the top half of the 3rd round.

Food for thought. Sounds like if there’s a year to be stuck without a first-rounder, this might be it. Perhaps that’s quite the opposite of the question I asked yesterday, whether it would be wise to try to trade into an earlier round next year. But it’s encouraging for those of you who see the Redskins staying put and taking two players, or moving around only slightly.

More Redskins & NFL from The Post:

D.C. Sports Bog: Redskins the fifth-worst drafting team, according to ESPN the Magazine

Associated Press: Ten things to watch for at the NFL draft

D.C. Sports Bog: Adam Carriker’s wife had 500 pounds of compost delivered to Redskins Park

Associated Press: No first rounder, no problem for Redskins, because of RGIII

D.C. Sports Bog: Mike Shanahan looking happy while out in Clarendon

Opening Kick: Trade a pick this year for a better one next year?

Redskins’ salary cap issues not as bad as they appear

Draft coverage, position previews: Safety | offensive line | cornerbacks | running backs | inside linebackers | wide receivers | pass-rushers | tight ends

Team-by-team draft needs | Prospect reports, sortable by position & school

Former Arundel star Lemon hopes his name is called on Saturday

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