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In The Loop
Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 12/20/2012

In the Loop’s presidential election contest winners


(Marlon Correa)
The presidential popular vote counting is just about over — although Cook Political Report guru David Wasserman, who has President Obama at 50.97 percent of the vote now, says there are still some yet to be counted.

But if we’re going to get t-shirts out to the winners of the In The Loop election contest (popular vote) in time for Christmas, we’ve got to stop the count now (kind of like the Supreme Court did in 2000).

So here are the winners — ties broken by time of entry.

1. Emil Marcus, a teacher from Matawan, N.J., who was .03 percent off, predicted on Sept. 11 that Obama would win 51 percent of the vote.

2. Matthew Thomas, a restaurateur from Fredericksburg, Va. predicted 51 percent the next afternoon.

3. Martha Steinbock, a retiree from Silver Spring, was the third person to enter with the same percentage.

4. Stuart Davis, a retired teacher from Arlington — and winner of the electoral vote portion of the contest — wins again with his entry of 51 percent.

Three people predicted a lower vote than Obama got, but only by .07 per cent:

5.William Bennett, not the former secretary of education but a Washington lawyer, predicted Obama would get 50.9 percent of the popular vote.

6. Frank W. Krogh, a lawyer from Arlington, entered the same calculation.

7. Walter Smith, of the District of Columbia, the executive director of a nonprofit advocacy organization. also was in that winning category.

8. Henry Resnikoff of Essex, Conn. was next, predicting Obama would garner 51.06 percent of the vote, so he was just .09 percent off.

A number of Loop Fans predicted Obama would win 51.1 percent of the vote — .14 percent too high.The first in with those guesses were:

9. Michael G. Pilot, a retired economist from Arlington; and,

10. Joe Foley of Potomac, who runs a lobbying and public affairs firm.

In addition to an official In the Loop t-shirt, the winners can also note that their predictions were closer than the formidable statistician and blogger Nate Silver’s 50.80 prediction.

By  |  07:00 AM ET, 12/20/2012

Categories:  Forecasts | Tags:  Cook Political Report, David Wasserman, Nate Silver, contest, Al Kamen, Emily Heil, In the Loop

 
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