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Posted at 07:11 PM ET, 05/14/2012

A last look at the Ward 5 electorate


Early votes and absentee ballots received through May 9. Shaded areas represent turnout percentage; area of circles represents relative number of votes. (Mike DeBonis - Data from D.C. Board of Elections and Ethics; map via geocommons.com)
If you live in Ward 5, and you haven’t voted in the D.C. Council special election already, tomorrow’s your last chance. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.; check out dcboee.org for more details including help on finding your polling place.

Last week, I shared some data on where the early and absentee voters are at. Here’s an updated map with all early votes cast plus all absentee ballots received by the Board of Elections and Ethics through Friday. The trends identified earlier still hold — the highest-voting precincts are to the north — though there are now relatively more voters in some Brookland precincts.

Here’s some additional analysis that does not bode well for Tim Day, the only Republican in the race: It appears that thus far Ward 5’s Republican voters, already scarce, are not coming out in especially large numbers.

Only 2.9 percent of the votes cast so far — that’s 64 out of more than 2,200 votes — have been cast by Republicans. That’s less than the 3.5 percent GOP share of the ward’s registered voters. Republicans are relatively overrepresented in the number of absentee ballots requested — 10.4 percent — but that’s still only 73 votes.

That said, it’s no secret that Day needs significant numbers of Democratic votes to win — and he will get more than a few, given his well-publicized early role in busting Harry Thomas Jr. and a certain newspaper’s endorsement. But he needs his GOP allies to give him a base to build on, and unless a whole bunch show up tomorrow, they’re not giving it to him.

By  |  07:11 PM ET, 05/14/2012

 
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