One advantage in moving Jayson Werth to the second spot in the lineup is pretty simple: It will allow one of the Nationals’ best hitters to hit more often. You don’t easily notice it, but over the course of the season a team’s No. 2 batter will come to the plate more often than those batting No. 3 through No. 9, just based on which spot in the order makes the last out in the game. That’s so obvious it was probably not worth using those 76 words to explain.

But how much will the Nationals benefit having Werth bat second? Dave Sheinin, on a whim, tackled that question last night. He looked up how many plate appearances each spot in the top half of the Nationals’ lineup received in 2010. This is what he found:

1: 743

2: 722

3: 713

4: 697

5: 682

6: 668

First, an aside: this explains why speed should be considered a bonus, and not even close to a determining factor, when choosing a leadoff hitter. If you put a hitter with a low on-base percentage first, you are only giving him more chances to make outs.

Now, the real point of Sheinin’s research. Over a full season, Werth would receive 25 or 30 more plate appearances hitting second as opposed to say, fourth. That works out to about one per week.

Maybe the best reason for Werth batting second is that Rick Ankiel won’t have to. Even at his best, Ankiel’s value is predicated on slugging, and that makes far more sense to stash in the middle of the lineup. Ankiel may have slotted in at second if Werth hit third. Instead, he’ll probably hit sixth.

So here’s a question: how many outs will the Nationals save by Ankiel hitting sixth instead of second?

Over the past two seasons combined, Ankiel punched up a .298 on-base percentage, which is 1) pretty much unplayable and 2) four points higher than Ivan Rodriguez’s last season. The Nationals are certainly counting on Ankiel to improve that mark, but let’s wok with .298.

Now, Ankiel will not play everyday, since Jerry Hairston will play center against lefties, roughly one-third of the games. So let’s reduce the No. 2 plate appearances to 477 and No. 6 plate appearances to 440. Now divide those by .702 (which is 1-.298).

So by our methodology, Ankiel would make 25 fewer outs by batting sixth rather than second over a full season.

I am assuming that math is terribly misguided. Someone smarter than me can probably make this point in a more sophisticated way. But this is why batting Werth second seems like a good idea: It gives a hitter who is good at getting on base more chances to do that, and it gives a below-average on-base hitter less chances to make outs.

FROM THE POST

Remember Jack McGeary, the draft pick who chose a $1.8 million signing bonus AND college? Now he’s done with school, recovering from Tommy John surgery and ready for the next chapter.