1. Poll-reading 101: Nate Silver reminds us that the polls in April are not very good predictors of the outcome in November.
2. And Mark Mellman has a good look at why there’s so much volatility.
3. Paul Krugman fears that Ben Bernanke has been assimilated.
4. Is there a wonk gap? Steve Benen explains.
5. Ezra Klein looks at how to think about the question of how Barack Obama has handled the economy.
6. While Jamelle Bouie looks at Mitt Romney’s fantasy version of what Obama has been up to.
7. And Jed Lewison on the case for and against Mitt Romney as a flip-flopper.
8. Raising taxes will get you booted of the GOP…unless it’s raising taxes on poor people. Eric Cantor pretty much says, as Tim Noah notes, that he supports raising taxes on the poor in order to lower them on the rich.
9. Want to really get into the question of how taxes affect the economy? For the serious wonk, Jared Bernstein runs down the evidence from recent research. As he says, “scholars have actually looked at this stuff and come up with consistent and compelling answers.”
10. I agree with Jonathan Capehart: if Barack Obama starts avoiding states because his visit might wind up getting involved in a media circus, where is he going to campaign?
11. Heather Hulbert on Marco Rubio’s big foreign policy speech.
12. Another test for Barack Obama on gay and lesbian issues: Reid Pillifant reports on another upcoming fundraiser – this one hosted by Ricky Martin – that may gauge the progress of Obama’s famous “evolution.”
13. Today’s SCOTUS arguments on Arizona’s immigration law “sounded like they could have been broadcast by Fox News” to Adam Serwer.
14. Which makes me notice via Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire (even though, really, it makes no sense to look at state polls this early) that in Obama and Romney appear to be dead even Arizona right now.
15. Sarah Posner looks behind the numbers in Gallup’s recent poll on religion and politics.