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ThePlumLIneGS whorunsgov plumline
Posted at 05:51 PM ET, 08/31/2012

Happy Hour Roundup

1. Want to know who will win the election? Dylan Matthews rounds up the predictions from various election models from political scientists, economists, and the New York Times stats maven Nate Silver. Add them up, and you get an election that could easily go either way, but with Barack Obama perhaps a slight favorite. My recommendation: The models overall give you a general indication of the basic conditions of the election, but I wouldn’t put too much trust in them.

2. Economic analysis of the day: Mike Konczal points out that Mitt Romney’s plan is a dead ringer for what John McCain wanted in 2008 . . . and what George W. Bush wanted before that.

3. Paul Krugman points out exactly how that worked out last time.

4. Good coverage on the (brief) foreign policy section of Romney’s speech from Dan Larison.

5. See also Zach Beauchamp on the same topic, focusing on Romney’s mendacity.

6. The Associated Press notices that Romney’s choice to completely avoid Afghanistan made him the first Republican nominee in decades to avoid mentioning war in his convention speech.

7. If it’s Friday, you know it must be time for Steve Benen’s “Chronicling Mitt’s Mendacity.”

8. Paul Waldman listened to the Republicans, but what he heard was Four Yorkshiremen.

9. Great profile by Suzy Khimm of what Paul Ryan learned – and didn’t learn – from Jack Kemp.

10. Interesting thoughts about taxes, opportunity, and mobility from Jonathan Chait.

11. Away from the conventions, Ben Bernanke made some closely watched comments today; Jared Bernstein interprets them as hinting at new pro-growth action to come from the Fed.

12. On the other hand, Matt Yglesias interprets the same remarks less optimistically (that is, with less confidence that the Fed will act for growth).

13. Yet another significant court decision on voting in a week that’s been full of them, and another (at least temporary) victory in the courts for Democrats: Ohio will be required to hold early voting the weekend before the election for everyone. At least, if the current injunction holds. Voting law expert Rick Hasen has the details (via the always excellent Political Wire).

14. Alec MacGillis reports on the landscape in Ohio, and why Romney is in trouble there.

15. I’m not much of a podcast listener, but for those who are, I do recommend the American Prospect’s weekly effort with Jamelle Bouie and Jaime Fuller. This week, they join guest Gene Demby.

16. And “social science confirms that Mitt Romney is really, really good looking.” John Sides reports on new evidence, although note that it’s very unlikely that there’s any electoral effect to be concerned about here.

By  |  05:51 PM ET, 08/31/2012

 
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