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ThePlumLIneGS whorunsgov plumline
Posted at 07:30 PM ET, 09/19/2012

Happy Hour Roundup

1. The polling is getting wild out there! For example, Pew Research finds an eight point lead for Barack Obama last week.

2. And the First Read crew points out that Obama's improving numbers are being driven by rising economic optimism, among, crucially, independents, and that Obama has pulled even with Romney on the economy.

3. That squares with today’s news that Gallup’s economic confidence index has hit the high point since the recession hit. Actually, it’s the second time it’s reached this point; we’ll see if it stays there this time.

4. By the way, Taegan Goddard points out that of the eleven swing-state polls released today, Mitt Romney is leading in a whopping zero of them.

5. For some clarification on the horse race, go to Mark Blumenthal, who tries to make sense of that great-for-Obama Pew poll and looks at the overall race right now. And generally keep an eye on the HuffPost politics average.

6. Next, Nate Silver tackles the ever-popular question of polling and cell phones. And same advice: keep an eye on the FiveThirtyEight polling averages and forecasts.

7. While you’re at it, don’t forget about Drew Linzer’s Votamatic. Or the Real Clear Politics average.

8. It’s not just the presidential race where things are for the moment at least breaking for the Democrats. In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin has moved up in her fight with Tommy Thompson for an open Senate seat. Mario Trujillo reports.

9. Plenty of stuff still percolating on “47%”: Steve Benen notices that Mitt Romney accidentally told the truth to Fox News about his tax plans.

10. Annie Lowry and Michael Cooper dive into Republican ideology and the facts about taxes. Very helpful.

11. Romney believes in redistribution?  Yes, he does, as Ezra Klein argues. Reality is that it’s a silly talking point.

12. Paul Krugman makes a good point: Republicans actually talk as if far fewer than 47% are the “makers.”

13. And E.J. Dionne goes there, saying that “the more you think about what Romney said, the more you wonder how he really feels about the country he wants to lead.”

14. There’s more to that fundraising video, by the way. For example, Kevin Drum catches one in which “Romney is, once again, plucking a scary number he seems to have heard from a tea party symposium somewhere and mindlessly regurgitating it to a receptive audience.”

15. And here’s a great explanation of that currency manipulation bill that Sherrod Brown is pushing (and John Boehner is resisting) from David Dayen.

By  |  07:30 PM ET, 09/19/2012

 
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