1. As of tomorrow, people in half the states will be voting, either by an early voting or an absentee mechanism. Kyle Inskeep with the details. Doesn’t make it impossible for a candidate behind in the polls right now, but it is a significant issue.
2. Barack Obama’s reaction to “47 percent” and more, courtesy of Jed Lewison.
3. The latest on Mitt Romney’s tax returns, from Ryan Grimm: No, Romney’s summary release today isn’t going to be the end of this issue.
4. Great explanation of survey error and other reason for variation in different polls, from Drew Linzer. His conclusion: the polls are collectively behaving as theory would predict. Basic lesson: don’t try to figure out why one poll is “wrong” – just toss it in to the polling averages, which will generally be very accurate.
5. Andrew Sullivan on the “are you better off?” question.
6. Mitt Romney has a housing plan. Brad DeLong is, shall we say, not impressed. At all. Yikes!
7. Friday. Benen. “Chronicling Mitt’s Mendacity.” Always.
8. Meanwhile, an excellent post from Seth Masket on “the real Romney.”
9. I’m a huge fan of the Paul Ryan as Eddie Haskell idea, so of course I’m going to urge you to read Digby on Haskell/Ryan at the AARP. Important point I’ve made before: Eddie never fooled June Cleaver. Not for a minute.
10. It’s Senate debate season: in Missouri, Claire McCaskill and Todd Akin faced off. Julie Sobel reports. Remember, each individual Senate contest can wind up making a huge difference down the road.
11. And as for the House: Sam Wang defends his polling-based prediction model, which right now has the Democrats doing very well in House elections.
12. I’m not exactly a big Peggy Noonan fan, but yeah, the idea that she’s no longer a conservative because she thinks Mitt Romney should change the way he’s campaigning…see Rod Dreher.
13. And also Steven Taylor. Seriously; I don’t think Noonan had any policy criticisms; it was all just electioneering choices. Apparently can’t even say that.
14. Conor Friedersdorf says it: “The civil war the right needs is one waged against the hucksters.”
15. A terrific primer on taxes and the policy issues surrounding them from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.
16. And Erik Loomis on the Nader legacy.