Happy Hour Roundup

1. Today’s reality check: read Andrew Gelman on what it really means to say that Barack Obama has a 60 percent or 75 percent chance of winning.

2. Into the weeds on possible reasons the results might not match the polling: Sean Trende believes there’s an impossible mismatch between state and national polls.

3. My reaction is that it’s possible, but I’m skeptical.

4. Good Suzy Khimm post on deficits, the fiscal cliff, business and the ratings agencies.

5. Greg and I have both done posts on how liberals should be very happy with the new crop of likely Democratic senators; Dylan Matthews puts some numbers on it.

6. Those numbers come from political scientist Boris Shor; wonk out with the explanation and explore more here.

7. Speaking of which: Jamelle Bouie on the Democratic Senate candidate in Arizona, Richard Carmona.

8. What about the seemingly good Republican candidates who have faltered? Ed Kilgore looks into it.

9. Seth Masket argues that it’s very sensible for voters to base their choices on how politicians act during a crisis.

10. What will Republicans say if Romney loses? Marc Ambinder sketches it out.

11. This cycle’s ballot measures against the Affordable Care Act, from ballot measure maven Abby Rapoport.

12. All those Republican hacks: Kevin Drum watches the increasingly silly Niall Ferguson and asks why anyone would make Ferguson’s career choices.

13. While Dan Drezner takes apart Ferguson’s latest.

14. Also: why does “The Hill” still publish Dick Morris? Excellent question from Dave Weigel.

15. And a fun electoral map history quiz, by Chris Kirk.

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