Let’s start with a quick reality check. In the national vote, HuffPollster’s poll-of-polls average currently has it at Barack Obama 48.0 percent, Mitt Romney 46.8 percent. That’s a real shift towards Obama over the last week, and has brought the election from a very close one where it was fairly easy to envision a Romney win to one where the polls have to be wrong by an unusual margin. Meanwhile, their state-by-state polling averages have Obama leading in states with 277 electoral votes, with another 26 electoral votes in toss-up states in which Obama has a very slim lead — and that’s not including Florida, which is basically a dead heat. The truth is that there’s been hardly any good polling news for Romney over the last several days and quite a bit of good news for the Obama campaign.
More good stuff:
1. Don’t miss a very good column from E.J. Dionne Jr. framing the election.
2. A closer look at the current polling landscape from Simon Jackman.
4. It’s not just the presidency — or even just Congress! Seth Masket thinks about state legislative elections.
5. Although some of the candidates at that level might be not quite ready for prime time; Abby Rapoport has the details.
6. Whatever its effect, Conor Friedersdorf is right: Republicans who made voting more difficult in this cycle should be ashamed of themselves — and their reputations should be hurt by it.
7. Party scholar Hans Noel says: Vote for your party’s candidate.
8. Will the GOP turn against itself after the election? Ed Kilgore makes the case they won’t; I agree.
9. Americans don’t really have any idea what the Affordable Care Act is about. Stephanie Mencimer reports.
10. What it’s like to lose. David Freedlander interviews Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis and Bob Dole. One comment: Losers get a raw deal from history; all three of these candidates ran solid campaigns, in each case running against the fundamentals of the cycle. Generally, candidates win nominations; parties win general elections.
11. An epic takedown of Michael Gerson’s rant against numbers – and political science — by John Sides.
12. Matt Glassman has a brilliant guide for how to handle Election Day.
13. And yes, it’s here: Ann Friedman’s GIFtastic version of WH 2012.