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ThePlumLIneGS whorunsgov plumline
Posted at 09:07 AM ET, 11/03/2012

Where we are with three days left

Nate Cohn looks at all the most recent polling in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada — three states that would put Obama over 270 — and concludes:

As of today, there is not a single non-partisan survey showing Romney ahead in any of these three states.

The RCP averages show Obama leading in those states by 2.9, 5.4 and 2.7 points respectively. This comes after two polls yesterday — from CNN and NBC/WSJ — put Obama up three and five points in Ohio. Meanwhile, Cohn notes there is evidence Obama is edging ahead in Colorado.

And in Florida, an NBC/WSJ poll last night put Obama up two points. In the averages, Romney’s lead in Florida ranges from 0.2 points to 1.4 points. For all the talk about his “expanding map,” Romney is still fighting to hold Florida. Cohn concludes:

Obama is far better positioned in Florida than Romney can claim in any of the states along Obama’s path of least resistance to 270.

And in Virginia, the race is within one point, too.

Unless Romney can pick off Pennsylvania, where he trails by 4.6 points or more in the averages, he very likely has to win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia to win the presidency. That’s especially true if he doesn’t win Colorado.

And so, in the three states Romney likely must win, he is behind in one, tied in the second, and holds the most tenuous of leads in the third. He is leading meaningfully in none of them.

Meanwhile, Obama only has to win one of those three to virtually assure his path to 270. And he is leading meaningfully in one, tied in the second, and seriously contesting the third. With three days to go.

As always, the polls could be wrong, and Romney could still win. But the polls would have to be overwhelmingly, systematically, catastrophically wrong in multiple states for that to happen.

By  |  09:07 AM ET, 11/03/2012

 
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