Bill de Blasio: one-poll wonder?

Bill de Blasio (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Bill de Blasio (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

With Anthony Weiner in the hunt for the New York City mayoralty, we’ve gotten used to the weird factor of this race. But the latest Quinnipiac poll just added a frisson of crazy. Not in a bad way, but in an “I certainly didn’t see that coming” kind of way.

According to the survey, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio leads the crowded field with 30 percent support. City Council Speaker and long-presumed front-runner Christine Quinn comes in second with 24 percent. And former City Comptroller Bill Thompson garners 22 percent. With a margin of error at plus or minus 4 percentage points, this race is basically tied. But this poll is tremendous news for de Blasio. The poll shows he would beat Quinn and Thompson in a runoff. It should be noted that Weiner gets spanked in a runoff against de Blasio — 72 percent to 22 percent.

De Blasio has been getting a lot of coverage of late. Michael Barbaro over at the New York Times wrote all about the candidate’s “modern family” and how he, his wife (who is African American) and their children are all part of the campaign. His 15-year-old son Dante, sporting a fabulously retro Afro, even cut a campaign commercial for his dad.

If no candidate snares 40 percent of the vote in the Sept. 10 primary, the top two candidates face off in a run-off election on Oct. 1.

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo tweeted that the Quinnipiac poll is “either an outlier or pretty amazing.” Hours before the survey was made public, a blog post by Harry Enten at the Guardian definitively argued “Why Bill De Blasio won’t get to runoff in NYC’s Democratic mayoral primary.” Knowing Big Apple politics the way I do, it’s difficult to argue with his analysis. Still, another poll like this one could make de Blasio da bomb on primary election day.

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Jonathan Capehart is a member of the Post editorial board and writes about politics and social issues for the PostPartisan blog.
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Jonathan Capehart | August 13, 2013