Don’t panic (yet)

National Hurricane Center map.

This doesn't look good. But the Capital Weather Gang is here to reassure us. Forecasts this far out are basically useless. 

As our tropical weather specialist Brian McNoldy said earlier: “In the 5-7 day period and beyond, weather details become fairly unpredictable.” [...]

Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has developed a tool that shows the historic probability of a named storm affecting the region around Tampa is 20 percent in any given season. The odds of a direct hit near Tampa are around 3 percent.

The latest CWG update: "[M]odels tend to suggest a Florida (or Gulf Coast) hit early next week ... But this far out all options remain on the table including a track up the East Coast or even out to sea."

If Issac does hit Tampa, at least there's a plan.

Rachel Weiner covers cops and courts in Arlington and Alexandria.
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Rachel Weiner | August 22, 2012