CNN poll gives Obama six-point lead

September 10, 2012

A new CNN/ORC poll has President Obama leading Mitt Romney 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. That's a dramatic shift from the news organization's poll a week ago, which had the two candidates tied at 48 percent.

Obama generally struggles more in polls of likely voters than surveys of registered voters. In the last CNN/ORC poll, Republicans were more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting; now both parties are about equal in their enthusiasm. But independents lean towards Romney by 14 points. 

In a memo Monday morning, Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argued that surveys showing Obama leading Romney can be attributed to a convention bounce, a "sugar high" that will fade. Convention bounces are often short-lived; polling right after conventions is volatile. But Nate Silver has suggested that the shift towards Obama could last through the election. 

The CNN/ORC poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Rachel Weiner covers local politics for The Washington Post.
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Rachel Weiner · September 10, 2012