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Right Turn
Posted at 09:45 AM ET, 01/02/2012

Friday question answered

Most readers were split as to whether Mitt Romney or Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) will win the Iowa caucuses. DonaldJohnson has Romney as the winner, with Paul falling to third:

Mitt Romney will beat the surging Rick Santorum 30% to 20% Tuesday while Ron Paul will fall to a stunning third with only 19% of the votes cast by 135,546.3 caucus goers. . . .
The Big Story will be a question and debate. How did he blow it? Did Paul’s racist newsletters cost him Iowa? Or did Iowans decide that he had given up when he went home for the weekend to be with family and avoid the media?

Others see Paul squeaking by and thereby discrediting the Iowa caucuses. Jwjsabin thinks a Romney win is also possible, but Jwjsabin aptly spells out the argument for a Paul victory:

Due to his organization and grass roots support he always garners in these types of events he will finish in the top two. It’s way too close to call. If he wins, however, the importance of Iowa will suddenly be severely downplayed and the “real” bellwether will immediately become NH. Expect to see more attention paid to Huntsman’s quote about Iowa only able to pick corn.

However, Tkoho argues that Rick Santorum’s momentum is enough to carry him into first place.

If there were a week or two more to go before the caucuses, Santorum would have time to continue his rise. Tomorrow, however, second place is certainly attainable. It will give him a lift going into New Hampshire and provide us with the next and likely final not-Romney contender in the race. Iowa Republicans, I suspect, will breath a sigh of relief that their state party will not be maligned as the one that gave Ron Paul his first win in a presidential primary.

By  |  09:45 AM ET, 01/02/2012

Categories:  Friday question

 
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