The question of whose base — President Obama’s or Mitt Romney’s — will be the harder to turn out in November provoked some lively debate.
Statist quo was among those who think President Obama has the tougher challenge. He writes, in part: “Sure media and Hollywood liberals will try to rally around the President, but their enthusiasm will wane when they realize, this will not be the slam dunk the statists were predicting. Obama’s ‘evolving’ position on gay marriage, use of fossil fuels and the war on terror, also will weaken the resolve of the government worshipers, who support the President. Romney supporters are united by one theme: deny Obama a second term, and I predict Romney will raise and spend more money in the campaign, both from the base and from the unaffiliated voter, as well, despite Obama’s head start and incumbency advantage.”
Reabel2008 agrees that Romney has a critical factor on his side with his base: “The greatest asset Romney has for turning out his base is Obama. The general disdain for the Obama presidency has given rise to the mantra of ‘Anybody but Obama.’ This has people already double checking to make sure they know where their polling location is.”
MedievalMike concurs: “There’s a reason for the old truism that Democrats fall in love while Republicans fall in line. That discipline is what allowed them to thwart Obama’s agenda from the very start, when they were the minority party. Liberals are, it would seems, fairly disillusioned with the president and his challenge will be to get them to come out again. Republicans, on the other hand, are fairly united with one goal: removing President Obama from office. Except for a few of the more deranged Paul supporters who prefer ideological purity, the Republican base will turn out for Romney, I expect. Meanwhile the challenge for Democrats is to keep their base from forming a circular firing squad.”
Conversely, Tkoho argues: “The Evangelical wing of the [Republican] party doesn’t like Romney because he’s a Mormon and the TEA Party doesn’t trust him, [and] they know Romney is a flip flopper and would sell his family for a vote. He has the rich vote, the corporate vote, and the old-line republicans, but that’s it.”
Others are convinced that despite his popular vote total most Republicans rejected him and won’t turn out. Tomgil contends: “The Republican base is not Romney’s base. He was rejected by the vast majority of Republican primary voters.”
On this one, I think those who figure both sides will turn out their base, have it right. JPRS writes, in part: “The real battle will be with the few genuine swing voters. There’s a strong chance that many true undecideds will just stay home on election day, because the Fall campaign is likely to get pretty ugly, and non-aligned voters are more likely to show their dissatisfaction by simply not bothering to show-up. I think we’re likely to see a relatively low-turnout election for a presidential election cycle. The real lack of enthusiasm, when it comes to voting, will probably come from non-aligned voters.”
As DrBerkeley puts it: “If either candidate has a problem turning out his base, it will be Obama. But I’m not convinced that will be the challenge — the challenge will be for the Republicans to get at least 5% more of the independents than the Democrats get. They start at a disadvantage with the Dem/Rep registered voter balance, so have to do more than just break even with the Independents.” Indeed, as is often the case the 7-10 percent of voters in the “middle” are likely to decide this race.