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Right Turn
Posted at 08:34 AM ET, 11/05/2012

Friday question answered

How do the critical Senate races shake out? Rfhirsch answers this way:

Connie Mack is likely to win the Senate seat in Florida. Obama’s huge gender gap will likely hurt [Bill] Nelson’s chances.
With the Pennsylvania Senate race now tied according to the Susquehanna poll . . . Tom Smith is the likely winner, especially since the Pennsylvania Republicans are highly enthusiastic and Romney will have a massive rally tomorrow in the Philadelphia area.
Tommy Thompson is pulling ahead in Wisconsin and is now a likely winner, especially since the Romney/Ryan ticket is seeing so much bigger turnout than Obama and Biden in rallies in the state.
Deb Fischer’s wide lead in Nebraska has narrowed somewhat but again with Republican turnout likely to exceed expectations, the Romney/Ryan landslide should pull her to an easy victory.
Rich Berg is considered highly likely to win the North Dakota seat for the Republicans.
Two races may go over to the Democrats:
[Angus] King in Maine will probably win and caucus with the Democrats
[Elizabeth] Warren may get a narrow win over Sen. Brown in Massachusetts.
These races give the Republicans a net gain of three.
The Republican trend in Virginia strongly favors George Allen, though he is not yet ahead in the polls.
Indiana is too close to call, but again enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan and lack of enthusiasm for Obama/Biden make it likely that this seat will stay Republican.
Montana . . . must be considered a toss-up, given again the Republican landslide at the top of the ticket.
Missouri will depend on turnout: [Sen. Claire] McCaskill has a slim lead but is very unpopular and the state has moved Republican in the last four years.
Ohio also is too close to call. The huge enthusiasm for the Romney/Ryan ticket (one rally yesterday got 10,000 more attendees than three Obama/Biden rallies in the state combined) and the heavy shift toward the Republicans in early voting compared to 2008, and the heavy decrease in Democratic Party registration in their main stronghold, Cleveland, make this impossible to predict.
At least one of these states currently held by a Democrat is likely to go Republican thanks to the strong enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan in each state

Talgreywolf sees it this way: “Indiana goes D, Montana says D, North Dakota goes D, New Mexico goes D, Massachusetts goes D, Florida stays D, Nevada goes R, Arizona may goes D, Wisconsin may be a while before we know who wins, and Virginia may be the same situation.”

And eddiehaskell argues: “The races everyone hears about — Akin- Missouri; Mourdock-Indiana — will both be tight from easy Republican victories. . . . [Scott] Brown beats [Warren] in Mass. [Linda] McMahon is close in Conn. [with the] Democrat still [the] favorite. [Tommy] Thompson wins in Wisconsin, riding Walker-Ryan-Romney coattails.”

Certainly the Senate races are as close as the presidential race in many cases. I’ll have full predictions later today, but for now I’ll take an upset win for Tom Smith in Pennsylvania and Joe Donnelly to win in Indiana. Both exemplify the truism that good candidates beat poor candidates more often than not.

By  |  08:34 AM ET, 11/05/2012

 
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