The Fix: Master Archives


How Iowa’s premier pollster sees the 2016 race shaking out

How Iowa’s premier pollster sees the 2016 race shaking out

The release of new Iowa poll numbers by the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is one of the few stop-what-you-are-doing-and-see-what-they-say moments left in politics. The woman behind the poll, which gets Iowa right every time, is Ann Selzer.  After the new Register numbers came out Saturday night, I reached out to Ann to see if she might expand on a few questions I had about the poll. She agreed. Our conversation, conducted via e-mail, is below. It's been edited only for grammar and flow.

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Scott Walker floats a U.S.-Canada border wall. In 2013, 822 illegal Canadian immigrants were arrested.

Scott Walker floats a U.S.-Canada border wall. In 2013, 822 illegal Canadian immigrants were arrested.

Scott Walker says he would consider building a wall along the U.S.-Canada border. "That is a legitimate issue for us to look at," the Wisconsin GOP governor  and presidential candidate told Chuck Todd in an interview that aired Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Legitimacy might be in the eye of the beholder. While the United States does deport illegal Canadian immigrants, the border with Canada is much longer, and the number of illegal immigrants crossing it is much, much, much smaller than it is down South.

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Scott Walker was on ‘Meet the Press’ talking about his campaign’s problems. I annotated it.

Scott Walker was on ‘Meet the Press’ talking about his campaign’s problems. I annotated it.

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS HOST: Well, the one candidate we didn't mention, because he wasn't in the top tier of the polls, is my next guest here. We're going to now turn to Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

He was supposed to be the conservative alternative favorite in this race, the conservative from a Republican -- a Republican from a blue state who beat the unions, got things done. But like many Republican candidates, Walker has been swept away these days by the Trump storm.

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Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans want a president from outside of government

Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans want a president from outside of government

The big takeaway from this new poll of the Iowa GOP caucuses -- from Monmouth University -- is that Ben Carson has  drawn even with Donald Trump, at 23 percent. And it comes a couple days after another poll showed Carson closing to within five.

That in and of itself is remarkable. Trump's rise was already unbelievable; Carson's is equally so. What's even more amazing, though: The third-place candidate in this new poll is businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who like Trump and Carson has never held public office. In fact, they are the only three hopefuls in the GOP field who can say that, and they are 1-2-3.

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Donald Trump’s ace in the hole: Voters don’t really care about policy

Donald Trump’s ace in the hole: Voters don’t really care about policy

There's a persistent idea in politics -- it's particularly rampant in political journalism and academia -- that voters are deeply interested in the specifics of each candidate's policies. That the way people make up their minds in an election is through a thorough review of where the candidates stand on a variety of issues.

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Kanye West says he will ‘run for president.’ Because politics is entertainment.

Kanye West says he will ‘run for president.’ Because politics is entertainment.

Kanye West is running for president, y'all. Yes: President.

On a megachurch-like theater-in-the-round stage set up at last night’s MTV Video Music Awards, the rapper informed the world that he will be seeking the presidency in 2020. And also that he had just smoked something.

What follows is a brief summary of the bizarre and possibly stage-managed events.

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Democrats like Hillary Clinton. Her problem is that they don’t love her.

Democrats like Hillary Clinton. Her problem is that they don’t love her.

It's easy to look at Hillary Rodham Clinton's slide in the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll — she lost 20 points worth of support in the Democratic caucuses — and assume that Iowa voters just don't like her very much.

But that's wrong. They seem to like her quite a bit; nearly eight in 10 (77 percent) view Clinton favorably in the poll. That's down from a May poll in the state, but only marginally so (eight points). In fact, more likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers view Clinton favorably than they do Sen. Bernie Sanders (73 percent).

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4 numbers that explain this whole Donald Trump thing

4 numbers that explain this whole Donald Trump thing

This Donald Trump thing is now moving into its third month -- with more than half that time featuring Trump as the GOP front-runner.

And yes, we still struggle to understand precisely how this has happened. Or, perhaps more accurately: We struggle to understand whether it has staying power or is just another Rick Perry/Herman Cain/Michele Bachmann/Newt Gingrich thing that GOP voters do long before actual votes are cast and is eventually a thing where we look back and chuckle.

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President Obama is approaching the magic number for his Iran deal

President Obama is approaching the magic number for his Iran deal

After more than two months of uncertainty, it looks like President Obama is going to get his Iran deal.

Congress will vote in mid-September on a yes-or-no resolution that could give the go-ahead to the historic nuclear deal that the United States and five other nations reached with Iran in July, or halt it.

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John Oliver remakes American history in his book of lies [Video]

"There is absolutely nothing more fun than lying confidently about human history," says John Oliver.

So the host of HBO's "Last Week Tonight" decided to produce a short Web exclusive about all the things that didn't happen in history he wish were true. He may have even put it all into a book.