wpostServer: http://css.washingtonpost.com/wpost

The 2012 GOP presidential race — in 5 charts.

at 03:34 PM ET, 03/21/2012

The Fix has spilled tens of thousands — maybe even hundreds of thousands (gulp) — of words on the 2012 presidential race. (Heck, we started covering it around the middle of 2009!)

But, in truth, the entire race — at least on the Republican side — can be explained in five charts.

Before we get to the charts, a special thanks to the Post polling team — Jon Cohen, Peyton Craighill and Scott Clement — for their help in pulling this all together and to Ezra “King of Charts and Graphs” Klein for the inspiration.)

1. “Very conservative” voters: In any state where the number of voters identifying themselves as “very conservative” exceeds 34 percent, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney doesn’t win. Romney is simply not acceptable to the base of the Republican base and nothing he has said or done — at least not yet — appears to change that reality.

2. Evangelicals: Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum hasn’t won a single major state where evangelical or born again voters comprised less than half the electorate.

3. 100K +: If your family income is $100,000 or more, you are almost certainly a Romney voter. (In Illinois on Tuesday, Romney beat Santorum by 27 points among this group.) In any state where more than three in ten voters have a family income in excess of $100,000, Romney wins. (The lone exception is Georgia where native son Newt Gingrich won despite 38 percent of the electorate fitting into the $100,000 category.)

4. Electability: The one thing that all Republican voters agree on is that the most important trait in the party’s eventual nominee is that he can beat President Obama in November. The more people who cite electability as the key candidate trait in making up their mind, the better Romney does.

5. It’s the economy, stupid: When Romney wins big, it’s because of his strength among voters who say the economy is the most important issue facing the country. Romney’s narrow Ohio win correlated to his beating Santorum by only eight points among economic voters. Romney’s convincing Illinois win, on the other hand, was built on a 21-point edge over Santorum among economy voters.

Loading...

Comments

Add your comment
 
Read what others are saying About Badges

    Blog Contributors

    Chris Cillizza

    Chris Cillizza

    Chris Cillizza is founder and editor of The Fix, a leading blog on state and national politics. He is the author of The Gospel According to the Fix: An Insider’s Guide to a Less than Holy World of Politics and an MSNBC contributor and political analyst. He also regularly appears on NBC and NPR’s The Diane Rehm Show. He joined The Post in 2005 and was named one of the top 50 journalists by Washingtonian in 2009.

    Juliet Eilperin

    Juliet Eilperin

    Juliet Eilperin covers the White House for the Washington Post. She served as the Post's House of Representatives reporter from 1998-2004, covering the impeachment of Bill Clinton, lobbying, legislation, and five national congressional campaigns. Since 2004 she has been one of the country’s leading reporters covering the environment, reporting on science, policy and politics in areas including climate change, oceans, and air quality. She is the author of two books, "Fight Club Politics: How Partisanship is Poisoning the House of Representatives," and "Demon Fish: Travels Through the Hidden World of Sharks." Follow her on Twitter.

    Ed O’Keefe

    Ed O’Keefe

    Ed O’Keefe covers Congress and politics for the Washington Post. He previously covered the 2008 and 2012 campaigns and reported on federal agencies and federal employees as author of The Federal Eye blog. Follow Ed on Twitter.

    Aaron Blake

    Aaron Blake

    Aaron Blake covers national politics at the Washington Post, where he writes regularly for “The Fix,” the Post’s top political blog. A Minnesota native and summa cum laude graduate of the University of Minnesota, Aaron has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and The Hill newspaper. Aaron and his wife, Danielle, live in Annandale, Va. Follow him on Twitter.

    Sean Sullivan

    Sean Sullivan

    Sean Sullivan covers national politics for “The Fix.” Prior to joining the Washington Post in the summer of 2012, Sean was the editor of Hotline On Call, National Journal Hotline’s politics blog. He has also worked for NHK Japan Public Broadcasting and ABC News. Sean is a graduate of Hamilton College, where he received a degree in Philosophy. He lives in Washington, D.C. Follow Sean on Twitter.

    Scott Clement

    Scott Clement

    Scott Clement is a survey research analyst for Capital Insight, the independent polling group of Washington Post Media. Scott specializes in public opinion about politics, election campaigns and public policy. He helps design and analyze all Washington Post polls, including the Washington Post-ABC News poll. Follow Scott on Twitter.

    Rachel Weiner

    Rachel Weiner

    Rachel Weiner covers national politics for Post Politics and The Fix. She came to the Washington Post in 2010 as a political web editor and anchored the Post's 2012 election blog. She was previously a web editor at The Huffington Post. Follow her on Twitter.

    Section:/blogs/the-fix