Democrats’ poll shows them favored to win in the special election to replace Rep. Anthony Weiner

at 12:26 PM ET, 09/02/2011


U.S. Representative Anthony Weiner, a Democrat from New York, pauses while speaking at a news conference in New York, U.S., on Monday, June 6, 2011. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Anthony Weiner (Jin Lee - BLOOMBERG)
A new Democratic poll in the Tuesday special election for former congressman Anthony Weiner’s (D-N.Y.) seat shows Democrats in good position to hold the seat on Sept. 13.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group this week, shows former Assemblyman David Weprin (D) leading businessman Bob Turner (R), 47 to 39 percent.

The Democratic numbers come on the heels of a poll released Thursday by Turner’s campaign that showed the two candidates in a tie at 42 percent.

Some Republicans seized on the GOP poll as evidence that they could pull off what would be a major upset in the 9th district, but Democrats remains confident that they will win.

The Democratic poll shows Turner, who challenged Weiner last year, is still slightly better-known than Weprin. Democrats also concede that Weprin hasn’t run a great race, a fact that was highlighted when the assemblyman skipped a debate recently.

But the overwhelming Democratic nature of the district — Democrats hold a 130,000-voter advantage in the seat — is winning the day, as a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican 46 percent to 32 percent in the district.

Democrats argue that their poll is more reliable because it was conducted over two days — Tuesday and Wednesday — while Turner’s poll relied on a single-day sample.

The Turner poll, conducted by GOP pollster John McLaughlin, was done on Wednesday.

The one neutral poll on the race, from Siena College three weeks ago, showed Weprin leading Turner 48 to 42 percent.

A win by Republicans here would be big news, given the Democratic leaning of the district. But the district’s voters have shown a willingness to vote Republican, having voted 44 percent for each of the last two GOP presidential nominees.

And neither side has put much emphasis on winning the open House seat, given that it could very well be eliminated in the coming round of redistricting.

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