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Make your swing-state election predictions

at 04:00 PM ET, 04/18/2012


Mitt Romney speaks to supporters at a rally in Denver in February. Colorado and its nine electoral votes will be a key determining factor in the November election. (Marc Piscotty - GETTY IMAGES)
If you read The Fix on Monday, you saw our breakdown of the nine states we expect to be the true “swing states” in the presidential election this fall.

With that post as background, we’re giving you a chance to see how Obama vs. Romney might play out based on your expectations in those nine states.

In the quiz below, tell us which way you think each swing state’s electorate is leaning, and based on your responses, we’ll tell you the most likely result of the election. No, this isn’t scientific, and if you want a fuller description of our methodology, scroll down a bit. But we think it’s a fun exercise; give it a try:

Predictor methodology:

* We used The Fix’s swing-state analysis from April 16 , which gave President Obama 237 “sure” electoral votes and Mitt Romney 191. That left 110 electoral votes from the nine swing states in play. (The swing states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.)

* The more certain you say you are about a particular swing state’s results, the more electoral votes flow to the candidate you see as the favorite. No, the Electoral College doesn’t work that way, but this is an exercise to see how you feel the election is leaning, not a straight “who will win?” prediction.

* Your vote in each swing state is weighted by the number of electoral votes that state has.

 
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