Wisconsin recall election: Poll shows dead heat

A new Marquette Law School poll finds the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall all tied up.

Among registered voters, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) leads Gov. Scott Walker (R) 47 to 46 percent in the June 5 recall election. Among likely voters, Walker leads by one point, 48 to 47 percent.

A mid-April survey from Public Policy Polling found Walker with a narrow lead.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is surrounded by the news media after speaking to the Illinois Chamber of Commerce Tuesday, April 17, 2012 in Springfield, Ill. (Seth Perlman - AP) In the May 8 Democratic primary, Barrett is maintaining his double-digit lead over former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, 38 to 21 percent. If Falk was to win the primary, she would not fare as well against Walker, the poll suggests. The governor leads Falk 49 percent to 42 percent among registered voters and 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.

While the recall was sparked by Walker’s collective bargaining reforms, jobs have come to dominate the race. The governor promised on taking office that Wisconsin would create 250,000 jobs by 2015. So far only 5,900 private-sector jobs have been added under Walker.

Forty-six percent of Democratic primary voters rated “creating new jobs” as their most important consideration. Over the past month voters have become more pessimistic about the state’s economy,  with 38 percent saying jobs had been lost over the past 12 months and 21 percent saying jobs had been gained. That’s likely due to the 4,300 private sector jobs lost in March.

On which party can create more jobs, the state is divided: 46 percent say Democrats, 44 percent say Republicans.

Marquette interviewed 705 registered voters; for the full sample the margin of error is 3.8 percent. The likely voters sample was 561 respondents, with a 4.2 percent margin of error. The Democratic primary sample was 451 respondents with a margin of error of 4.7 percent; the likely primary sample was 399 voters with a 5 percent margin of error.